Christians and Republicans Drowning Together
A recent Washington Post poll indicates that the number of self-identifying Republicans is shrinking. Only 21% of Americans consider themselves Republican, down from 25% last month and the lowest since 1983. “In that same poll, 35 percent self-identified as Democrats and 38 percent called them Independents.”
There is no doubt that much of this decline in the GOP results from former President Bush falling out of fashion. Numerous Republicans remain conservative but have simply stopped calling themselves Republican, and sometimes even shedding the label of conservative in favor of libertarian (see, for example, Glenn Beck). Thus for many people the migration away from “Republican” toward “independent” is nothing more than a change in name, and doesn’t necessarily reflect a shift in beliefs. But how much of this decline is in fact a reflection of changed beliefs?
One argument in favor of the change-in-beliefs theory must surely be the concurrent decline in the number of Christians. As has been reported here and numerous other places in the last few months, America is becoming a more secular society. Both the number of self-identifying Christians and the number of church-goers are on the decline. Indeed, it’s possible to imagine a day in my lifetime when Christians make up a minority of the nation’s population.
Perhaps then self-described Republicans are rarer not only because other descriptions are more socially acceptable, but also because fewer people believe in the party’s platform. It is no secret that the GOP has largely wedded itself to social conservatism, particularly that which is espoused by conservative Christians. Both Republicans and Christians continue to hemorrhage adherents and both seem equally dazed and confused about how to turn it around. I don’t claim to have all of the answers, but I do think the health and vitality of each group depends on them divorcing their shared journey and finding independent paths out of the wilderness.
11 Responses to “Christians and Republicans Drowning Together”
The GOP’s social conservatism has been pretty constant over the past generation, so I see no connection between that and GOP decline. I thought social conservatism was back-burner, anyway. National security, taxes and spending have been in the foreground.
The GOP *was* once wedded to fiscal conservatism, but we caught it making out on the couch with fiscal liberals.
I would quibble with the description of President Bush as having “fallen out of fashion.” (As a blogger, I write things pretty quickly and so won’t read too much into the choice.) But I think he didn’t fall out of fashion. Rather, many of his policy choices were bad for the country. Republicans suffered from these choices and their consequences because, even if the choices weren’t ‘conservative,’ the Republicans (more than the Democrats anyway) acquiesced in those choices.
To me “fashion” suggests some whimsical change of mind as opposed to a more considered reaction.
Point well taken Doug. I primarily used that phrase because I think that some Republicans continue to be sympathetic with Bush but just fear associating with him publicly (hence the “fallen out of fashion”). However, I do think there may be something even deeper, which was the thrust here.
The GOP’s social conservatism has been pretty constant over the past generation, so I see no connection between that and GOP decline.
Republicans’ social conservatism has not changed much in a generation, but America has.
I do think the health and vitality of each group depends on them divorcing their shared journey and finding independent paths out of the wilderness.
I’d like to see how you would flesh this out more. I agree to an extent, but social conservatism–along with tax cuts and warmongering–is all the GOP has left these days. You’d have to replace social conservatism with something else or the floor will fall even further.
Frankly, I’m more optimistic about de-politicizing the church than fixing the GOP.
Could someone please be more specific about this social conservatism? What policies are in question here? The only social issue I can think of that has gotten a lot of noise lately is SSM, which the Left is pushing, and over which the social conservatives and the American mainstream are on the same side.
First, I think it’s important to look at the long-term trends and not just the most recent poll. This page has some useful charts, which confirm that GOP party identification has been on the decline since the middle of Bush’s first term, while Dem party ID has been slightly on the rise over that period of time.
I think it would serve the GOP well to reclaim its fiscal conservatism–though it’s going to take a lot for the party to regain its credibility on that point. Without social conservatism, however, a huge chunk of middle- and lower-income voters will follow their wallets to the Democratic party. If the GOP drops its opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion, it will lose more socially conservative voters than it will gain socially liberal, fiscally conservative voters.
I don’t think it’s possible or necessary for the church to expunge itself of politics. As long as there are churches which strongly believe homosexuality, abortion, etc. are immoral, (or on the liberal end of things, churches which believe our foreign policy or treatment of the poor, etc., are immoral) you’re going to have some political currents in the church. It always ebbs and flows; it was very high a decade or so ago at the height of the Christian Coalition, and now it’s at a lower level. Socially conservative opinions run strong in my church (especially among church leadership), yet there is rarely even a passing reference to politics made during any sermons.
By the way, I’m also not convinced that decreases in the numbers of self-identifying Christians and in church attendance are indicators that people’s beliefs are changing. Instead, I think people are becoming more honest about their beliefs, and that religion is becoming less of a factor in the social life of Americans.
The GOP distanced itself from social conservatism with its choice of John McCain as presidential nominee and the result was a bunch of passionate social conservatives who DIDN’T donate money, DIDN’T spend their time volunteering for the campaign, and several million of whom DIDN’T vote after they had in 2004. If anything, the current situation the GOP is in is a result of it distancing itself from some of the major issues affecting America’s conscience, like abortion and gay marriage, not being too closely wedded to them.
Remember that just four years ago the 2004 election was hailed as “the values election,” with “values” listed in exit polls as the most frequent determining factor on voter choice. Take away the values side of the GOP and you are seriously wounding yourself as a party.
McCain was the pick of a minority of Republicans, made possible by a split conservative vote and the political alien guest voter program (open primaries). The primaries were rudderless – and had participation from non-Republicans. You can’t look at a divided primary and discern general GOP trends (except on issues where a majority of candidates are on the same side).
Abortion doesn’t get as much talk as it used to because voters are focused on the key issue that will address that problem and a host of others: the appointment of constitutionalists to SCOTUS. Support for gay marriage is a vote loser in either party, in statewide or national races. Government corruption is a bipartisan values issue – it sank Ted Stevens and William “Cold Cash” Jefferson – although the partisans often don’t agree on who the crooks are. Fiscal conservatives regard redistributionism as a values issue – it values covetousness and theft. (I’ve wondered why schools can’t display the Ten Commandments…) A lot of parents (not just religious ones) are miffed at the skankification of childrens’ apparel; I don’t recall much call for legislation to address this issue (you’d think Michelle Malkin would blog that kind of stuff if it were happening).
That’s all the social issues I can think of off the top of my head. What else is there? Do gun control, nicotine control and unhealthy food control count as social issues?
I’m not sure whether your comment was in response to mine, Alan, but I think that the “distancing” I spoke of on the GOP’s part last year was inadvertant (a result of, like you said, a split conservative vote in the primaries) and doesn’t reflect the true interests of party members.