Hoosier Blue
The two guys from fivethirtyeight.com, the breakout blog from this election year, were in Indiana this past weekend assessing Barack Obama’s chances to take the perennially Republican Hoosier state. Their first stop took them to Tippecanoe county where they observed canvassing efforts and took in a pep talk by retired Senator Birch Bayh. The next day they moved on to Bloomington, where we learn that voter registration drives at IU have netted nearly 11,000 students.
538’s Nate and Brett are Democrats, but their coverage this season has been pretty balanced. The impression they give is that Barack Obama’s ground game in Indiana leaves John McCain’s in the dust. Perhaps that’s why Indiana is now a toss-up/leans McCain state, while George W. Bush won it by 15 and 20 points in his two elections, respectively.
ITA’s resident Hoosiers care to weigh in about Indiana’s prospects?
10 Responses to “Hoosier Blue”
I reside in Evansville, Indiana’s third largest city, tucked in its southwestern pocket. Most of its residents are socially conservative, but also generally blue-collar workers with sympathies to Democrat fiscal policies. During the Democratic primary, Hillary and Obama invested as much time and money in winning this part of the state as any other because they viewed it as a swing portion of the state. Every indication is that the same mindset applies to the general election.
Thus, I believe Evansville serves as a nice microcosm of the battle over Indiana as a whole. I am active and involved in local politics, and serve as an executive for one of the local parties, so I can speak with some authority when I state that Obama’s ground game here is utterly blowing McCain out of the water. While Obama has very visible office space on the city’s Main Street, along with countless paid staff and volunteers, McCain has absolutely no presence other than the occasional strained efforts of the local GOP.
Each day I drive to work I see at least one Obama supporter out knocking on doors and registering voters. I can state with certainty that nothing similar occurs for McCain. Moreover, Obama’s yard signs – in a county that consistently votes Republican – outnumbers McCain’s.
In short, I agree wholeheartedly that Obama is in a better position to win Indiana than any previous Democratic president in recent history.
I would agree that Obama is in a better position than many previous Democratic campaigns, but I’m not sure that translates into saying much.
In my county, a minor Obama flack visited us this weekend and the Obama-endorsing Congressman had a “meet the candidates” forum at the local Democrat headquarters the next day. All of this spurt of activity resulted in a 33% increase in Obama yard signs in the county; they went from six to eight (I see them so seldom that I keep a list in my car and note where I see them).
In nearby Perry County, Time Magazine recently did a story about the extensive Obama presence in that county. They spoke of seeing “Farmers for Obama” signs and Obama yard signs everywhere along the main highways. I spoke yesterday with two people that have been in Perry County this past weekend. There were hardly any Obama yard signs to be seen. The Obama campaign (and perhaps local Democrats) either set up a Potempkin village for the benefit of Time, or Biden’s comment about coal power plants really set somebody off (Perry County is big territory for coal miners).
Regardless, the penetration of the Obama campaign in southern Indiana appears to be very uneven (you see it heavily, I don’t), and it also appears in places to be contrived and inch deep.
Obama probably has the best chance in a long time. However, I am not sure visiting the collage cities in Indiana is the best way to develop a sound opinion of the state.
My mother still lives in Fountain County and is being driven to Barr by McCain (and some prompting from her son.) I grew up in Vermillion County and it s nearly as one party Democrat as Chicago. My mother does not see her neighbors voting in doves for Obama. For many rural Hoosiers blacks are to be tolerated not trusted. For some blacks are still to be hated.
I’m sure that by “many” Jacob still means a relatively small number. I lived in Indiana from age 4 to 22 and could probably count on one hand the number of genuine racists I ever encountered.
Anyway, I agree with the above commenters that Obama has a better chance to win Indiana than any Democrat since LBJ–due mostly to his large investment of resources in the state while McCain has mostly taken it for granted. But I’ll still be shocked if Obama wins Indiana, short of a national landslide. I think there may be a Bradley effect going on which is making Obama look closer in Indiana polls than he is.
Eric,
You cannot both minimize claims of racism in Indiana and claim a Bradley effect significant enough to turn an election. The Bradley effect IS an example of pervasive racism.
Michael,
My understanding of the Bradley effect is that poll respondents are afraid of being considered racist, so they tell pollsters that they are “undecided” or going to vote for the non-white candidate, when they actually favor the white candidate.
Whether there is pervasive actual racism in an electoral district is irrelevant; it’s the fear of being considered racist that drives the Bradley effect.
Eric
I find you living in Indiana and meeting less than five racists in your lifetime somewhat amazing. I lived there for the large majority of my life, and in my younger days (80’s to early 90’s) I remember it being the norm to at least be mildly racist (whether you were white, black, or hispanic-the only three groups I remember knowing about as a kid)in that state. Things have been changing slowly, but it wasn’t too long ago that serious racial confrontations in high schools were taking place not in Martinsville, but Indianapolis.
I would hazard to say that all of our estimations about which way the state will go are going to fall badly prey to both (i) the false consensus effect, and (ii) the fact that really no one knows how to project the past few elections into the future, with such wild cards as the unpopular war in Iraq, the financial & housing crises, and Obama’s race.
Basically, all any of us can do is look at the polls, and try to estimate how well-run they are. (This is entirely consistent with JC’s closing claim in his comment, though!)
CJ,
I certainly met a lot of people who were prejudiced, but I very rarely met people who expressed that blacks were “to be tolerated not trusted” or “to be hated,” or who used the n-word with malice.
Granted, I’m sure my experience is not fully representative, since my social network was mostly well-educated and middle-class, but I don’t believe that racism is pervasive in Indiana.
So we’ll call it “roughly racism.” Here’s a nice video of a McCain-Palin rally in Ohio, right next door, where people are willing to spout that Obama is a “terrorist” and that terrorism is “in his blood.” These are the nice, decent folk from the small towns that Palin sets up on a pedestal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjxzmaXAg9E