Veepstakes

I’ve generally avoided all of the speculation about who the candidates will pick to be their vice presidential nominees, for a number of reasons. Primarily, running mates are essentially political theatre, and the only obvious way they could influence policy is if McCain dies in office. (No, I don’t expect either candidate to cede as much power as Bush has to Cheney.) Secondarily, it’s a waste of time: any punditry on a candidate who does not become a nominee is worthless; any punditry on the eventual nominee will be recycled in short order.
The speculation will drag on, of course, theatre being easier to criticize than policy. How much longer? Consider when Veeps were announced in the recent past:

• 2004: Edwards, 6 July
• 2000: Cheney, 25 July
• 2000: Lieberman, 8 August
• 1996: Kemp, 10 August
• 1992: Gore, 10 July
• 1988: Quayle, 18 August
• 1988: Bentsen, 13 July
• 1984: Ferraro, 12 July
• 1980: Bush, 17 July

With a cluster in mid-July, one might be hopeful that the announcements are imminent, except the full story is that most of these people were announced either at the convention or, more recently, just days before the convention. This year, the conventions are being held unusually late. The Democrats will hold theirs August 25-27 and the Republicans September 1-4.
Veepstakers have some hope, though. The past two election cycles show some divergence: Cheney and Lieberman were announced about a week early; Edwards almost three. If the trend continues, we might have the answers soon enough. I think an early announcement is especially likely for McCain, as the issue of who will be next in line is a bit more pressing. A disaffected base will also need more rallying (as will donors). Obama can probably wait a while.