In the Agora: The GOP Blackbox v 3.2

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January 22, 2008

The GOP Blackbox v 3.2

Here are the delegate totals after Nevada and South Carolina for the Republican contenders:

Source:	NYT	CBS	MSNBC	RCP	ABC	AP	CNN	MyDD
Romney	27	35	59	59	59	59	66	87
McCain	32	32	36	36	36	36	38	66
Huckabee	7	7	39	40	40	40	26	29
Thompson	0	3	5	5	5	5	8	11
Paul	0	0	4	4	4	4	6	8
Giuliani	-	0	1	1	1	1	1	0
Hunter	-	1	2	-	1	1	1	-

There seems to be five schools of thought on how to count delegates.

Ultra-conservative: The New York Times is not counting any delegates awarded by caucuses (IA, WY, NV) because those delegates have not yet been officially selected, and even still, Iowa and Wyoming delegates are unbound.
Conservative: Like the NYT, CBS is not counting delegates from Nevada or Iowa, and yet they are confident enough to count the unbound delegates from Wyoming.
Prospective: MSNBC, Real Clear Politics, ABC, and the Associated Press are all estimating the delegates allocated by caucuses. This is the plurality view. I'll note here also that RCP has the best designed scorecard of any of these websites.
Liberal: CNN is also estimating delegates allocated by causus, but their method for Iowa seems to be straight proportionality, whereas the Prospective approach gives delegates to Huckabee (30) and Romney (7) only.
Unknown: I don't know how MyDD is counting these things, and they seem so far off the path I'm not that interested in tracking them down. They will probably be excluded from further roundups.

Update: ~~CNN changed their totals: for some reason they are not counting any delegates from Michigan.~~ CNN totals corrected.

Posted by Zach Wendling at January 22, 2008 12:10 PM

Comments

FWIW, Fred Thompson has backed out of Thursday's Republican debate and word is that his campaign announced a press conference soon regarding the campaign. The tea leaves would seem to indicate that Thompson is dropping out.

Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at January 22, 2008 12:16 PM | permalink

The MyDD list may include super-delegates who have committed to a candidate; at least that's what I got from a piece from this morning( http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/1/23/82518/6658)

Posted by: Mark Byron at January 23, 2008 12:41 PM | permalink

It looks as if the CNN problem with Michigan was a temporary glitch- the delegates are back up now. Of course, the Democratic delegates have been stripped, so that probably is at the root of their temporary error.

Posted by: gerard at January 24, 2008 04:32 PM | permalink

It appears CNN has corrected its error with respect to Michigan. Not a surprising mistake, given that the Democratic Party stripped Michigan of all its delegates.

Posted by: gerard at January 24, 2008 04:59 PM | permalink

January 22, 2008

The GOP Blackbox v 3.2

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