I LOL'd at "Heresy" being a dealbreaker for Romney. It's funny because it's true.

Paul may be perceived as a pacifist, but he's not. He served in the military, he supports strong national defense, he endorsed the war in Afghanistan, and he supports various use-of-force measures (such as letters of marque - although I personally feel special ops teams would be a better alternative) to deal with terrorists internationally.

Zach,

I think that the experience of the Bush presidency is probably what is causing the hang-up. Personally, I felt that Bush was merely tolerable in 2000, and I thought he shortcomings wouldn't be important.

It turns out that his shortcomings defined his Presidency. Thus, now the GOP is looking at their candidates through the same lens, and they don't like what they see.

Also, I think that potential candidates that are more tolerable are not running, because they know 2008 isn't going to swing their way. We are watching the perennial candidates and crazy upstarts battle for the nomination, rather than serious candidates.

Belonging to a religion that rejects the doctrine of the Trinity and not having the guts to describe that religion in such plain terms definitely makes some people leery of Romney.

McCain's other HUGE dealbreaker is the "Gang of 14" appeasement of the Democrats.

Funny, I thought McCain dealbreaker for the base was "insufficiently pro-torture."

hmmm.... reading around blogs this morning, it seems the GOP establishment is really fearing a McCain surge in NH and elsewhere. See, for example, Patrick Ruffini's latest. So who does the establishment rally around? Romney or Rudy?

DMD,

What GOP establishment? Who represents them? I certainly don't support Rudy or Romney (for Zach's reasons). McCain is tolerable to me, mainly because he has the balls to stand up to policy makers under him, which seems to be Bush's error. I only speak for myself, as someone who has been associated with GOP in the past.

The party GOP has been torn apart through arrogance and stupidity.

The only advantage the GOP has in this election is that whoever gets the nomination is going to have to be the "anti-Hilary". Unfortunately, they will have the disadvantage of being a white male. I think McCain has the fortitude to overcome that, but I don't think he will make the nomination.

Huckabee's candidacy isn't base-breaking? I'm hearing that the Wall Street wing of the party is practically apoplectic over it...

Hillary getting the nomination will unify the Republican base better than anything any of the GOP candidates could do. I have to keep reminding myself that her winning the nomination is the best outcome of the Dem primary (both for being a more moderate Dem candidate and for increasing the GOP candidate's chance at winning), even though emotionally I am much less repelled by Obama.