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October 24, 2007
Ron Paul and the Gold Standard
It's no secret that Ron Paul has become the libertarian's standard bearer in the 2008 presidential election. The Libertarian Party nominee has even agreed to endorse Ron Paul if he were to get the Republican nomination. Never before has a libertarian candidate received so much attention and so much support.
As a libertarian-minded conservative, there is much for me to like about Ron Paul. He is unquestionably the staunchest defender of federalism, small government and individual liberty of all candidates. He opposes the interventionist foreign policy of so-called neoconservatives, and it doesn't hurt that he's a thorn in the side of generally detestable, ignorant and unprincipled candidates.
Yet Paul has a quirky obsession with the gold standard that just doesn't add up. Last week, on the heels of a tremendous fundraising quarter and a solid debate performance, Paul sent a lengthy email to supporters attributing his recent success to his opposition to the Federal Reserve and support for the gold standard. In various debates, he has also discussed monetary policy in answering completely unrelated questions. One gets the impression that this is priority #1 for Paul. As such, it deserves some consideration.
A common refrain by Paul is that the Fed "prints money" or just issues new currency whenever it needs cash. Paul also blames much of the national debt on the Fed. These are mostly erroneous claims that stretch the truth.
The Federal Reserve (the "Fed") is a private banking system which has a lot of money. And by "a lot," I mean massive amounts. Using this money, the Fed buys and sells bonds on the open market. Buying expands the money supply to make interest rates go down to the target federal funds rate, and selling bonds causes the money supply to contract until rates go up to the target rate. This is how the Fed controls inflation and is the essence of monetary policy. Without these Fed actions we would have absolutely no control over monetary policy.
Paul has a tendency to blame inflation on this policy and its use of fiat money and then imply that it is the reason prices for some goods, such as oil, continue to rise. But even if you assume that the value and supply of gold remains constant (which are, of course, impossible assumptions), prices will still rise. When the supply of a good decreases, or the demand rises, the price of that good will rise as well, regardless of the currency.
Ron Paul still sees gold as the answer. Using it as currency would relieve us of inflation and certain debt, he argues, and free us from bondage to the evil Fed. But as PJ O'Rourke has noted previously, it is possible that future generations may decide gold is revolting or immoral, and suddenly the price/value of gold will plummet and cause inflation. Similarly, new massive gold deposits could be discovered and also cause inflation. The possibility of inflation under a gold standard is just as great as it is under fiat currency. And there would be absolutely nothing we could do about it.
The key to understanding Paul's position is understanding the libertarian philosophy. Whereas many people view the potential volatility above with skepticism, Paul embraces it as a natural market force. These market forces, he would argue, are far more desirable than government manipulation through an unaccountable Fed.
Paul's monetary policy reveals certain limits to my libertarian leanings. I understand his position and the justification for it, but I just don't buy it. A Paul presidency would bring about a tremendous number of positive changes, but this one - one of his favorites - I can do without.
Posted by Joshua Claybourn at October 24, 2007 11:42 AM
He isn't advocating a forceful removal of the Federal Reserve, in fact, watch his meeting at the Taft Club, he's talking about legalizing a competing currency. So when he says he's a proponent of the Gold Standard, he means to have a truely free market in the production of money.
Why competition? Any real economist knows that where there is competition, the prices and services get better for the consumer. The consumer, Americans.
If that idea sounds odd, keep in mind JFK actually had his own mint and had the same idea of monetary competition going until he got shot.
We did very well with money backed by Gold and Silver, but now our economy is close to crashing due to reckless spending.
When we run out of money, we borrow it from China, and the Fed prints more. But we have to pay our loans back somehow, sometime.
Posted by: Tim at October 24, 2007 12:14 PM | permalink
Well on your main point, Tim, I would have to agree. Competition with fiat money is a punishable offense and a relatively sever federal crime. That should change to allow for competition among various currencies. Yet I don't think your characterization of Paul's stance meshes with reality. He has quite clearly and consistently advocated the abolishion of the Fed: http://www.house.gov/paul/congrec/congrec2002/cr091002b.htm
Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at October 24, 2007 12:29 PM | permalink
He has indeed called for removing the FED. He would like the congress to resume it's constitutional duty and issue currency. I see nothing quirky about this.
There are competing currencys out there now like egold and the Liberty Dollar. The federal government is clamping down hard on both. True monopolys only come with the coercive the power of government.
Posted by: Nexus at October 24, 2007 01:07 PM | permalink
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Posted by: Steve at October 24, 2007 01:17 PM | permalink
But if you find out HOW he would do that, it's very reasonable. It wouldn't be through excessive force via an executive order, but with competing currency that would topple the FED via a truely free market. This is why a lot of REAL Economists actually back up Ron Paul. I found a few editorials on kitco.com (a precious metal market website for the pros) where they fully back up Ron Paul on his stance on this issue.
When you have a competing currency that has a lower interest rate of, let's say 2-5%, and I think the FED's is over 10%. It is the free market principle that makes the FED either lower the rates or give up. So it's not a crazy notion at all.
Let me see if I can find the taft clip.
Posted by: Tim at October 24, 2007 01:35 PM | permalink
Here you go:
Part 6 of Ron Paul's Speech at the Taft Club:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=BLpYpmwd66g
I strongly suggest to watch the whole thing
Posted by: Tim at October 24, 2007 02:11 PM | permalink
It would not be possible to simply remove the FED and re-enstate the gold standard. There is too much currency out there and not enough gold.
Posted by: Nexus at October 24, 2007 02:17 PM | permalink
It is an odd state of affairs for the GOP that the sanest person running for their presidential nomination is still, in several key ways, a kook.
Posted by: philosopher at October 24, 2007 03:17 PM | permalink
"If they dare to come out in the open field and defend the gold standard as a good thing, we shall fight them to the uttermost, having behind us the producing masses of the nation and the world. Having behind us the commercial interests and the laboring interests and all the toiling masses, we shall answer their demands for a gold standard by saying to them, you shall not press down upon the brow of labor this crown of thorns. You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross of gold."
"Cross of Gold" William Jennings Bryan, July 9, 1896
Posted by: George W at October 24, 2007 04:15 PM | permalink
That's a good post. However, massive new gold deposits would cause inflation, not deflation.
Posted by: Matthew at October 25, 2007 12:36 AM | permalink
Mr. Claybourn,
As a student of economics, I would like to kindly point out a few errors in your statement on Ron Paul's monetary policies.
You stated:
"A common refrain by Paul is that the Fed "prints money" or just issues new currency whenever it needs cash. Paul also blames much of the national debt on the Fed. These are mostly erroneous claims that stretch the truth."
The FED does not print money per se, but it does indeed issue money through its open market operations. When the FED purchases US government bonds, it injects new money into the economy in the form of bank credit. Where does this money come from? It does not come from the US Treasury! This money is entirely new, created ex nihilo by the Federal Reserve- a check drawn upon itself. This is inflation. This is what Mr. Paul is talking about when he says that the FED prints money. The upshot is that the FED is crucial for the way the government practices inflation these days because of its ability to monetize US government debt in this way. The fact that inflation is done in this roundabout way, and not directly through the printing press, makes it that much harder to understand and hence that much more convenient for the government to practice.
Next, you state:
"The possibility of inflation under a gold standard is just as great as it is under fiat currency. And there would be absolutely nothing we could do about it."
You are right to say that gold is not totally immune to inflation- the gold supply is continually increased through mining. But, unlike fiat currencies, there are physical limits (i.e. costs) to expanding the gold supply. Moreover, as Alan Greenspan has pointed out, Gold has a very high stock to flow ratio, meaning that new annual production is a tiny fraction of the existing stock. Gold can be inflated withing extremely narrow limits; government paper can be inflated ad infinitum. Hence gold money (and other commodities) are our best defense against inflation. At best-i.e. when politicians and central bankers behave well, such as our current situation- inflation amounts to a tax on all dollar holders, a tax which bears largely upon wage earners and pensioners, those at the bottom of the economic ladder. At worst, inflation causes severe economic distortions- business cycles- often leading to the eventual ruin of the currency and economic chaos.
Finally, I would like to point out that inflation and war go hand in hand. Inflation is very much a hidden or disguised tax, hence it is politicians' favorite way of paying for wars. If the taxes for wars had to be directly levied upon the people, beforehand, how successful would politicans be in initiating and escalating wars of agression? While it certainly would not bring an end to conflict, a true gold standard would be a great step towards international peace by the very fact of making it harder for politicians to fund their wars. Gold money goes hand in hand with peace.
Dr. Paul is an avid and intelligent student of Economics, and his advocacy of gold is well studied, well reasoned, and a very, very important aspect of his overall policy of freedom and peace.
Respectfully Yours,
Tyler Watts
George Mason University, Fairfax, VA
Posted by: Tyler Watts at October 25, 2007 01:59 AM | permalink
I've never been a student of economics... Indeed, the only time I took an econ class, I spent much of that semester drunk, missed the final and mercifully got a "D" by a retiring professor tired of failures.
But it's not like gold has any real value. It, like a floating currency, it simply worth whatever someone wants to pay for an ounce of gold. Gold is just a shiny rock, and its value floats daily, just as the value of a dollar floats daily. It trades on the commodities market like pork bellies, (though, like petroleum, its price is not set by supply-and-demand, but rather by international bureaucracies and political currency), doesn't that make it a crummy benchmark?
I mean, we can't control its production, we don't control its value, we don't control its supply. What is different between that and any other commodity? Why not use a silver standard? Corn standard? Unleaded standard? Paperclip standard? They're not worth any more than someone is willing to offer, either.
I mean this in an earnest (and skeptical) way. What's so great about gold?
Posted by: George W at October 25, 2007 09:08 AM | permalink
Matthew: Thanks for the heads up. Error corrected.
Mr. Tyler Watts,
As a former student of economics, I would like to kindly point out a few errors in your statement on Ron Paul's monetary policies.
You stated:
"Where does this money come from? It does not come from the US Treasury! This money is entirely new, created ex nihilo by the Federal Reserve- a check drawn upon itself. This is inflation."
I'm well aware of what Mr. Paul refers to when he says the Fed prints money. But the characterization is misplaced. The Fed does not print money; it distributes it as an agent of the US Treasury. Printing paper money does not cause the money supply to increase. When dollar bills are issued, it results in a corresponding decrease in reserves or demand deposits. The Fed simply doesn't cause inflation by ordering new bills.
Nevertheless, the government does empower the Fed, as an agency, to conduct its obligations. This is nothing new and certainly isn't unique to the Treasury. But this type of agency function lies at the heart of Paul's criticism of the Fed. He argues:
The United States Constitution grants to Congress the authority to coin money and regulate the value of the currency. The Constitution does not give Congress the authority to delegate control over monetary policy to a central bank.
However, the Constitution grants innumerable powers to Congress, which Congress then passes off to executive agencies. Nothing new here. We can criticize how the Fed operates as we criticize so many aspects of government policy, but it isn't unconstitutional.
The bigger picture here is that Paul is essentially leveling two separate criticisms - one at the existence and authority of the Fed, and the other at the type of currency that the Fed uses. I do agree that gold has it uses, which is why I'd favor the ability of currencies to compete.
Regards,
Joshua Claybourn
Indiana University (BS '03, JD '06)
Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at October 25, 2007 09:43 AM | permalink
Here's what's really irritating about what the Fed does: It tries to manipulate levels of economic activity, rather than simply monitoring true inflation (the money supply). I think it encourages irresponsible, short-term-focused investing and spending.
I have to grit my teeth when I see the Fed sitting down and talking about lowing interest rates because people are defaulting on their mortgages, or because the stock market is down, etc.
So the various investment markets become guessing games, trying to predict what the Fed will do next. And the Fed is watching these same markets, for indications of what it should do next! So the situation becomes sort of a self-fullfilling prophesy, where petulant consumers, banks, and investors sit around and pout and don't invest until the Fed gives in and lowers interest rates.
And then, of course, you get a frenzied bull market for a short time, as everyone runs around trying to capture the new money the Fed has injected into the system -- effectively rent seeking.
This isn't the Fed really fighting inflation at all. It's playing around with a money spigot, trying to control the level of economic activity in our country, to keep it at a relatively even pace. It thus dampens the impact of negative actions (like the absurd excesses of the recent sub-prime mortgage boom).
And the economy generally doesn't take many threats seriously, because we know if things get really bad, hey, at least there'll be lots of cheap money out there to borrow.
Posted by: Phil at October 25, 2007 12:26 PM | permalink
Money is a commodity. Its value fluctuates against the price of other goods and services. But, much confusion occurs when money is equated to wealth. Wealth is the backing for money, just like a car is the backing for a car title. By increasing car titles, we will not increase the number of cars, and the inflation of the supply of car titles will devalue them relative to the wealth they represent.
The US dollar is currently backed by debt obligations of the US government - ie. the future taxing authority of the US government. So our money represents debt (credit) and not wealth. Sound money must represent wealth and not credit, that way, the holders of the currency don't have to worry about being subjected to a credit check (margin call).
Gold just happens to be an inert, rare, highly divisable element that is easy to distinguish because of its color and physical characteristics. It also is of little use in most types of manufacturing and has a relatively stable production rate. All of this makes it one of the best commodities to fill the role of money (which is why it was chosen by international traders over the course of human history).
In 1910, a man's suit, shirt, tie, and dress shoes could be bought with $20 - 1 oz. gold. In 2007, a man's suit, shirt, tie, and dress shoes can be bought with $750 - 1 oz. gold. I abhor government price controls because they inevitably lead to overproduction or shortages. It is no different with interest rates. The government controls interest rates, which are related to the dollar through debt monetization - and they create shortages (monetary deflation) or overproduction (monetary inflation) - and consequently make long term capital investment overly risky. Sound money, backed by real assets, is the only form of money that is trustworthy enough to be used by a free people in a free nation.
Posted by: rhys at October 25, 2007 01:10 PM | permalink
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