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July 16, 2007

The Costanza Defense Revisited

One of the tenets of Bush's detractors is that he lied in order to convince the country to support his invasion of Iraq. Against this charge, I can only offer the weakest defense, which comes from a favourite Seinfeld quote, ""Remember, Jerry, it's not a lie if you believe it." In other words, when the Administration told us Saddam had WMD, they were arguing in good faith, even though their beliefs weren't based upon solid evidence (or, as the hipsters say, reality).

This was a plausible line for two reasons. First, if the WMD were entirely fictitious, one wouldn't expect the President to pursue a course of action that would immediately reveal his deception. Second, I was under the impression that part of the reason why the initial phase of the occupation was so half-assed was because the military were focused on finding Saddam's WMD rather than providing security. Seemingly, the planners were behaving as if the WMD were real. Recent blogging by Andrew Sullivan casts this story into considerable doubt:

I should also add that the war-plan itself, while it did include some minimal protective armor for troops, in no way prioritized securing suspected sites of WMDs. Many were indeed left to looters. That's a pretty good sign, I think, that the president and his generals were not too worried about WMD use. [Link]

. . .

The salience of it is either a) rank incompetence, or b) that the military leadership really didn't have reason to fear the WMDs the president had scared the rest of us about. But even well-known nuclear sites were left to be raided by looters. If the Bush administration really feared WMD programs, they had a funny way of invading. [Link]

This indicates an Administration that didn't fully believe the line they were giving the public -- and expected to get away with it.

And yet, since the push for the invasion, they have doggedly stuck to their fantasies about WMD as the debacle has unfolded. Indeed, their belief may have increased as the evidence against mounted. Did you think I was kidding when I said they were Surrealists? Sully continues to connect the dots:

My own sense is that it was an obvious mixture of genuine concern and less genuine corner-cutting. In their own way, they thought they were doing the right thing. But their refusal to involve the larger body politic, to bring in Democrats, to bring in even sensible Republicans and Bush cabinet members, led to the mess they're now in. They weren't fully honest with us, or perhaps with themselves, and their arrogance and defensiveness and secrecy prevented them from becoming more honest. And so the conduct of the war has been accompanied by behavior more redolent of a cover-up. Hence Libby's perjury. And the interminable lies about torture and detention. And the wiretapping and secret gulag of torture sites. And the weird war-plan that did not focus on WMDs. The arrogant dismissal of the insurgency, the refusal to accommodate it, the inability to look ahead, and the reflexive tendence to deploy fear as a political weapon. And on and on.
If Bush, Cheney, et alia aren't outright liars, then they are at least paranoid, incompetent, delusional, irrational, and truculent. And that is no defense.

Posted by Zach Wendling at July 16, 2007 09:29 AM

Comments

Spot-on.

Here's a pair of forward-looking follow-up questions: (i) which, if any, of the likely GOP candidates for president -- McCain, Giuliani, and Romney -- seem willing & able to reverse this trend of delusional authoritarianism in the executive branch? and (ii) if the winner of the GOP nomination is not someone who is willing and able to do so, which of the potential Democratic nominees would you be willing to hold your nose & vote for instead?

Posted by: philosopher at July 16, 2007 10:56 AM | permalink

(i) Paul
(ii) Richardson

Posted by: Zach Wendling at July 16, 2007 11:36 AM | permalink

Fair enough; but perhaps you'd consider answering the question with regard to candidates who have a whelk's chance in a supernova of winning the primaries?

Posted by: philosopher at July 16, 2007 01:59 PM | permalink

As Mitt might say, the answers to your questions are defined by the null set.

Here is a bet you might be interested in.

Posted by: Zach Wendling at July 16, 2007 02:35 PM | permalink

If I may...

(i) Paul, Hagel
(ii) Richardson, Obama

I will weep for this nation if the choice came down to Clinton v Giuliani, the biggest authoritarians on either side.

Posted by: David Darlington at July 16, 2007 02:47 PM | permalink

I can understand not being willing to vote for Clinton, but I do think that reasonable anti-authoritarian conservatives should seriously think about Edwards, and definitely about Obama, as worth voting for to block the worst (and, alas, most likely) current GOP candidates from attaining the White House.

This Sullivan post is pretty relevant, I think:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2007/07/obama-and-conse.html#more

Posted by: philosopher at July 19, 2007 11:20 AM | permalink

Hmm, the Tuwaitha comments disagree with a 2003 briefing on the subject:

"And Site Charlie, where radiological materials, principally yellow cake were stored, consists of three buildings, and they're surrounded by a fence and a wall of concrete barriers about 12 feet tall on three sides. According to reports from civilians in the area, on or about the 10th of March, Iraqi army forces who were guarding the site reportedly left their weapons -- some of their weapons with the local civilians -- and abandoned the site. We also believe, from talking to the local civilians, that on or about 20 March, the 20th of March, the civilians guarding the site abandoned it also. And, of course, we were conducting our attack across the Kuwaiti border on the 21st. On the 7th of April, U.S. Marines from our land component first arrived at Tuwaitha Site Charlie and assumed the security, and remained there until the 20th of April, when they turned over control of the facility to U.S. Army soldiers from another unit. And Tuwaitha Site Charlie has been secured and under the positive control of U.S. forces since the 7th of April. When the U.S. forces first arrived, they found the Tuwaitha site facility, Tuwaitha Charlie facility, in disarray. The front gate was open and unsecured, and the fence line and barrier wall on the back side of the facility had been breached. And the troops reported that there were no seals on the exterior doors of the buildings. But since taking control of Tuwaitha Site Charlie, no thieves or looters have been allowed inside the facility."


I find it odd that the Iraqi guards bugged out before the invasion started, but the military clearly said they did stop any further looting of the actual nuclear site at Tuwaitha once soldiers were present. Some of the discrepency in the accounts of looting on site might be due to the fact the entire facility covers 23,000 acres, and security was continously provided only at the nuclear storage site. So the claim that the Bush administration didn't protect the Tuwaitha WMD site is wrong.

Posted by: Kevin Murphy at July 24, 2007 02:24 PM | permalink

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