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July 23, 2007

He Means What He Said, He Said What He Meant

David Brooks knows better than me. I routinely ignore the public statements of politicians, confident that whatever they say is mere platitudinous drivel, devoid of any useful information. But in his New York Times op-ed last week, he uncovered a startling find: Bush actually means what he says, which is much more disturbing than my prejudice:

He's convinced leaders have the power to change societies. Even in a place as chaotic as Iraq, good leadership makes all the difference . . .

History is driven by the club of those in power. When far-sighted leaders change laws and institutions, they have the power to transform people.

(More excerpted here.)

Is it too played out to remind everyone how deeply unconservative Bush is?

As a foil, Brooks trots out Tolstoy:

Tolstoy had a very different theory of history. Tolstoy believed great leaders are puffed-up popinjays. They think their public decisions shape history, but really it is the everyday experiences of millions of people which organically and chaotically shape the destiny of nations -- from the bottom up.

According to this view, societies are infinitely complex. They can't be understood or directed by a group of politicians in the White House or the Green Zone. Societies move and breathe on their own, through the jostling of mentalities and habits. Politics is a thin crust on the surface of culture. Political leaders can only play a tiny role in transforming a people, especially when the integral fabric of society has dissolved.

If Bush's theory of history is correct, the right security plan can lead to safety, the right political compromises to stability. But if Tolstoy is right, then the future of Iraq is beyond the reach of global summits, political benchmarks and the understanding of any chief executive.

This is a position Russ Roberts identifies as downright Hayekian.

Of course, there are counter-examples, and David pointed out Bush's inapt self-comparison to Churchill. But the inability to distinguish between the exceptions and the rule is what is leading Bush, and by extension the country, to ruin. Bush is indeed, in the words of Ezra Klein, "completely untethered from reality." Klein continues:

So what Bush has been telling himself, apparently, is that public support is really malleable, and he still retains the bully pulpit power to rebuild it. He just hasn't decided to expend the effort yet. That's a rather unsettling admission, actually. Bush has managed to delude himself into believing the war isn't actually unpopular, but that he's just been focusing on other things besides the cultivation of public support. But so long as he believes the public is so weak-minded that their opposition is transient and their support can be summoned later on, he need never face up to what it means to be undemocratically pursuing a loathed war above the opposition of the electorate.
To an enormous extent, Congressional Republicans are enablers of this self-delusion. Eventually, they will realize the Emperor is naked, too -- not that even then will Bush feel the draft -- and that will be the real turning point. Those who put their hopes in the Democratic leadership are looking on the wrong side of the aisle.

Posted by Zach Wendling at July 23, 2007 08:52 PM

Comments

Honestly, I think the reason Bush was re-elected was because the voters, in their common-sense wisdom, decided that he ought to clean up the mess that he started (and that Kerry would likely bungle things even more). Assuming the above is true, it seems that Bush has not only not gotten that message, but he has deluded himself into thinking that he can save things if he just appoints the right Czar to handle it.

Ron Paul is right - we are solidify our empire via our culture hegamony and military threats. And yet, the Visigoths are already at our gates, while Nero works out!


Posted by: Dave S. at July 23, 2007 11:06 PM | permalink

My opinion is that neither Tolstoy nor Bush's presumed worldview is entirely correct. A great leader is neither a potter at his wheel, nor a feather on the wind. A great leader is like the captain of a sailboat. He controls neither the wind nor the current, but with the requisite skill he can guide the motion of the vessel.

As far as Bush "undemocratically pursuing a loathed war," it has hardly been the case that for the past several years he has chosen to remain in Iraq as opposed to some clearly better option. Ever since Saddam's regime was ousted, the question of whether to withdraw our troops has been "damned if you do, damned if you don't." Furthermore, the frustration with the continued chaos in Iraq is felt by every American, but I'm puzzled as to why virtually all the finger-pointing is aimed at Bush. We cannot impose peace on Iraq; the Iraqis must step up and take control of their own country. If there has been any "miserable failure" in the Iraq affair, the Iraqi leadership certainly qualifies. I suspect that sometime shortly after the '08 election, a major troop withdrawal will commence, with the U.S. throwing up our hands and saying that after 5 years of trying to pacify the country, we have to let them sink or swim on their own.

Posted by: Eric Seymour at July 24, 2007 09:09 AM | permalink

Good post.

Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at July 24, 2007 09:14 AM | permalink

You know, I just thought of something...

The Army has been saying that counterinsurgency war takes 8-10 years to win. That would put the end of this war solidly in Hillary's watch.

She has every reason to keep the status quo: Blame Bush, or take credit for peace breaking out!

Posted by: Dave S. at July 24, 2007 08:55 PM | permalink

While the Dems in Congress have only recently grown spines with regards to GWB, the GOPers still have not. Unlike media pundits and Mitch McConnell, I do not think Sept, or Nov, will be any kind of magical GOP congressional turning point as the Petraeus report will not be definitive either way.

I can only go by track records, so con'td obeisance from the congressional GOP towards their pres is fully what I'm expecting. There will be no GOP turning away from GWB, but there will be lots of finger pointing and blame shifting that will last well into the next (Dem) administration, and beyond. I wouldn't pin ANY hopes on this crew of GOP congressional... (Ugh. Words escape me, at least on this family view-friendly blog).

Posted by: JohnS at July 25, 2007 07:48 AM | permalink

The results of Bush's leadership should certainly give pause to liberals about about the ability to change human behavior by law or regulation as opposed to the availing of and submission to God's grace.

For true conservatives, the problem with Bush's approach isn't merely with the results but with the process itself, albeit that if Bush had had more success in foreign and military matters, his ratings among those who consider themselves conservative would be much higher. Conservatives should also admit, for instance, that our Cuban policies my be driven more by day-to-day-politics than conservative ideology. In this instance, many conservatives seem to lack confidence that opening up trade with that nation would engender change toward freedom more rapidly than trade restrictions do. I enjoy working crosswords, but one of my limitations is that my mind is often committed to a certain way of thinking that makes easy questions into hard ones. For instance, in yesterday's "NEA" crossword, I became stuck on 27-down because I was invested in a more narrow view of the definition of "queen."

For liberals who agree with the process -- that is, the ability of society to effect change through law -- there is at least the warning of one of the greatest weaknesses among those who believe in the power of government to bring change and that is the obstinate and egotistical refusal to evaluate whether programs enacted actually work. Liberals too often stay wedded to programs that clearly are clearly ineffective because admitting that they have failed is considered an acknowledgment that there is something wrong with the process itself. Bush seems to have done that with respect to Iraq policies.

Posted by: Joel Betow at July 25, 2007 09:08 AM | permalink

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