Are cell phones killing Ron Paul’s campaign?
Forget any possible cancer links. Dr. Ron Paul’s main concern with the growing use of cell phones may be their effect on traditional poll results. About 13 percent of all households in the country have “cut the telephone cord” in favor of cell phones, according to federal figures released in May. This growing group of Americans are simply ignored in traditional telephone (i.e. land line) phone surveys.
This Pew Research Center survey is perhaps the most comprehensive to date in working to determine what impact this has on polling data. The Pew survey found that cell-phone-only Americans are disproportionately younger, less affluent, less likely to be married or to own their home, and more liberal on many political questions. Yet “the absence of this group from traditional telephone surveys has only a minimal impact on the results.”
Notably, the Pew survey was conducted over a year ago, and the percentage of those now cell-phone-only has nearly doubled in that time. Perhaps a new study using the same techniques would reveal a different conclusion. Either way, though, “minimal impact” is in fact significant in the context of primary polling, where even a couple percentage points can make or break a candidate’s future.
Although Rep. Ron Paul is essentially libertarian, many of his positions - opposition to the Iraq war, greater civil liberties, etc. - would traditionally be defined as “liberal” in the lexicon of some members of the press. And voters (particularly younger ones) who align with those positions would seem to be the very people Ron Paul counts among his most ardent supporters.
Of course some will simply reply that polls are irrelevant this early in a presidential race. But early polls do help determine who’s in and who’s out of candidate forums and debates, not to mention who gets the coveted early campaign donations. In Iowa, for instance, Rep. Paul has already been excluded from a significant forum that features all of the other main candidates.
In the end it may be impossible to determine what impact outdated polling methods have on Ron Paul’s candidacy. But the constant rise in cell-phone-only Americans should give us cause for skepticism toward the countless land-line-only surveys that so drastically shape primary outcomes.
Update: A follow-up to this post can be found here.
JC,
Nothing’s going to kill Ron Paul’s campaign. You can’t stop the 2nd American Revolution.
Not kidding at all.
I get political polling on my cell phone all the time. It’s my only number, and I guess they want my opinion.
I’ve generally never really liked a serious Republican presidential candidate until Ron Paul. He’s a great guy, and if word can get out about his campaign, he might end up being the first republican I’ve ever voted for on a national level. He represents everything I respect about the republican party, without any of the stuff that makes me refuse to vote for them.
Traditional polling also might not pick up the many Americans who have Caller ID on their land lines.
Furthermore, over 90 percent of people hang up on the pollsters. It’s hard, if not impossible, to determine whether the hang-ups tend to have different political beliefs than the people who stay on the line.
Hey that’s weird, because just yesterday I had somebody call me for a poll about TV, and hung up when I told them I was on a cell phone. So, I would say there is probably something to this, at least in some areas, depending on who is doing the poll.
The polls are also missing Ron Paul’s significant support among independents, Libertarians, Democrats, and currently unregistered voters, because they focus on likely Republican primary voters. One way they determine who is likely to vote in the primaries is by calling people who voted in Republican primaries in the past.
Plus, a candidate with fervent supporters can do much better than the polls indicate. Primary turnout is around 15-20%, but if Ron Paul’s supporters turn out at a rate of 75-100%, he could do five times as well as predicted. In an 11-candidate field, 25% of the vote could be enough to win, so even a 5% standing in the polls could make him competitive.
“And voters (particularly younger ones) who align with those positions would seem to be the very people Ron Paul counts among his most ardent supporters.”
I think this is exactly why Dr. Paul is so big, compared to the other candidates, on Myspace and Facebook. They’re dominated by younger users who tend to like most of Paul’s positions.
I’m not in a cell-phone only household, but I am in a household of third-party only registrants, all of whom are reregistering Republican to vote for Paul in the primaries. So we’re probably unlikely to get counted in any polls - we haven’t voted GOP since 2000.
And, I’m glad to see ITA expressing some level of support for Paul.
Am 51; have had landline since 17 yet NEVER polled/surveyed. How would they ever make contact when I screen calls w/recorder, pay for non-pub.#, & use landline ISP (busy, busy!)? Primary# is cell phone for 7 yrs., but same as above! Most national polls I’ve looked at don’t even offer Ron Paul as a choice. Most poll/survey (so called public opinion) results make me feel like a stranger in a strange land.
Go Ron Paul! Go Ron Paul! God Bless Ron Paul! Ron Paul for President 2008!
Ron Paul in CNN debate on June 5, 2007!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwJKGfAWQUo
“In the time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act” GEORGE ORWELL
“A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and he carries his banners openly. But the traitor moves among those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the galleys, heard in the very hall of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor—he speaks in the accents familiar to his victims, and wears their face and their garment, and he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation—he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of a city—he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to be feared.
— Cicero: orator, statesman, political theorist, lawyer and philosopher of Ancient Rome.
Zydeco is correct.
With or without cellphones -
nothing will stop this Revolution.
The Ron Paul Revolution is a 21st Century “Boston Tea Party” that started on the Internet.
Ron Paul has moved out of cyberspace and into America’s front yard.
I spent the day campaigning on my own for Ron Paul at the local flea market with members of our local Ron Paul MeeetUp.
I talked to 100’s of people today! How many people will they talk to?
And so on ….and so on…..and so on……
Ron Paul 2008
We always knew liberals weren’t too swift. They’ll make great “useful idiots”. If they are glomming onto Paul, the farthest to the Right of all the Republican candidates, because of 2 or 3 issues then great… more votes for him. Shhhh… everyone be quiet… wait until after the election to let the “liberals for Paul” know that he’s Pro-Life and Anti-Big Government (which means he’s against about 97% of things that liberals stand for).
As for who will stop Ron Paul? Well, there are two biggies at the top of the list: the Media and the Republican Party.
Those are tough obstacles. In a corrupt culture such as ours, it’s likely too much to overcome. I wish him the best. He has my vote, but my bookie has my money.
i see EVERY comment here thus far have been Ron Paul supporters….and yet everytime the is a poll and Ron Paul blows away any other candidate when everyone there is thoroughly informed of Ron Pauls views and track record….if we are spammers….where are all the “nay-sayers” i’ve heard so much about?
i make a point to tell everyone i see and have seen the best reponse in wal-mart as we all know if they shop at wal-mart they aint rich/wealthy….
FREEDOM IS AMIDST and income taxes are on thier way out on a rail!
GO RON PAUL 2008!!