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« More Thompson Chatter | Main | Will it Get Worse Before it Gets Better for the GOP? » April 30, 2007Corzine's Speeding ProblemGov. Jon S. Corzine of New Jersey offered an emotional apology today for setting "a very bad example" when his motorcade was traveling at more than 91 miles, all while not wearing a seat belt. But old habits die hard. As Gov. Corzine and his crew were leaving the hospital, the speeding continued: No one in the motorcade used emergency lights, as his driver had been doing at the time of the accident. They kept to a pace of about 70 miles per hour, even though the posted limit is 55 on the stretch of Interstate 295 that leads to Drumthwacket, the governor's official mansion in Princeton, where Mr. Corzine will spend the next stage of his recovery.
Many traffic laws are inacted because of a misconception by state and federal legislators. They believe that reducing the speed limit will slow the speed of traffic, while raising the speed limit will cause an increase in the speed of traffic, and thereby increase accidents. Their belief is misguided. Colorado's Department of Transportation already seems to understand (pdf) and notes that "Before and After" speed studies show that there are no significant changes in vehicle speeds or accidents after speed limits are changed. As it turns out, a sort of "roadway democracy" seems to offer the best limits. Colorado's DOT explains that the optimal speed limit will result in the maximum number of vehicles traveling at about the same speed, reducing conflicts caused by speed differentials. The 85th percentile speed, the speed at or below which 85% of the traffic is moving, "is widely accepted as being closest to that 'just right' speed limit - a case of Majority Rule."
The Cato Institute's Stephen Moore reinforces this view in a 23 page paper titled "Speed Doesn't Kill" (pdf), as does the British Columbia Automobile Association. Moore notes that 33 states raised their speed limits after the federal government's repeal of the 55 mph law in 1995. Because of this, traffic death rates dropped to a record low level in 1997. In addition to saved lives, these more sensible laws offered an economic benefit estimated between $2 and $3 billion per year. When Gov. Corzine chose to break the speed limit laws even after an accident which broke his left femur and 11 ribs, it may be a sign that our current traffic laws are not reaching the "85th percentile" and are much lower than the optimal limit. The risks are clear: by setting an artificially low speed limit, the state creates a risky mixture of normal, reasonable drivers in the majority crashing into slower drivers who abide by the unreasonably low limit. Of course, as govenor, Corzine has an obligation to abide by the laws, as do all citizens. But it's time to re-think whether those laws need adjusting. Posted by Joshua Claybourn at April 30, 2007 04:57 PM CommentsInteresting that those going slightly above the average speed seem to be the ones with the lowest crash risk. My guess would be that that's because when traveling a bit faster, most of your danger is going to come from in front of you, where you have a better view, instead of from behind you. Just a guess. Posted by: Doug at April 30, 2007 06:47 PM | permalink That and it's generally easier to slow down than it is to speed up as the situation requires. Friction is on your side when you're going a touch too fast. Posted by: moniker at April 30, 2007 09:00 PM | permalink How do you get everyone to travel at the 85th percentile? Sounds like a place where all the children are above average. Meanwhile, if nearly everyone tries to match the same speed, won't there be an even greater added danger from the few who can't or won't? Picture a 100 MPH speed limit, then add Amish buggies (!). Posted by: Jason Kuznicki at April 30, 2007 09:49 PM | permalink How do you get everyone to travel at the 85th percentile? None of the research I linked to ever suggested that was the aim, nor did my post. Current speed limits do not aim to get everyone to drive 55 mph, and neither do advocates of raising the limit. Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at April 30, 2007 09:59 PM | permalink Agreed. 55 MPH on any stretch of Interstate highway--with the exception of unusually sharp curves, bridges, tunnels, etc.--is too low. The governor's motorcade was probably traveling at the customary non-rush-hour speed when they were doing 70. Going in excess of 90 MPH is still reckless, however. Posted by: Eric Seymour at May 1, 2007 08:53 AM | permalink "Because of this, traffic death rates dropped to a record low level in 1997" As Moore points out, speed doesn't kill - speed differentials do. I agree that speed limits are ridiculously low on our freeways, but the percentage of traffic fatalities occuring on limited access roads is such a tiny fraction of the total (yes, a freeway is by far the safest place to drive), I hesitate to attribute the decline in fatalities to higher speed limits. Posted by: J at May 1, 2007 09:02 AM | permalink The NHTSA data does not support Moore's claims. Posted by: wahoofive at May 1, 2007 11:21 AM | permalink Going in excess of 90 MPH is still reckless, however. That's only true in America. Look at Germany, where vehicles regularly maintain speeds over 90 MPH, and where the typical driver is far more skilled, and has way more experience than 95% of Americans. A professional driver would not have crashed Corzine's SUV under those circumstances. Unfortunately, America's police drivers are neither professional, nor careful. This particular crash was triggered by other careless drivers, but it was caused by Corzine's own incompetent driver, who had only one hand on the wheel. |
All of this provides good opportunity to re-emphasize my long held opposition to unreasonably low speed limits. There's ample evidence which suggests it's counter-productive to force Gov. Corzine to drive under 70 mph on a sparsely populated interstate highway. Indeed, the research suggests Gov. Corzine's initial accident may have been caused at least in part by speed limits which were too low.
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