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March 22, 2007

Truth and Consequences in Global Climate Change

The current debates over global climate change remind me of the public discourse over evolution in one insightful way. As an undergraduate, my evolution professor taught us that people don't reject the Theory of Evolution based on evidence; they reject it based upon the consequences of accepting it, by which he meant that it would be intolerable to hold a thought in one's head that undermined core tenets of religious conviction (namely, the veracity of Scriptures and the sovereignty of God.) In order to protect those tenets, creationists latch onto all sorts of misguided criticisms of evolution.

Likewise, I think most global warming skeptics are also not so much interested in the evidence for (or against) anthropogenic climate change as avoiding the consequences of accepting the policy prescriptions of the activists, which are intolerable to libertarians and fiscal conservatives as well as a substantial number of moderates, who tend to see global warming as an end-run around reasonable objections to government control.

Since the earliest days of the global climate change alarm, the activists have skewed the debate by making government regulation the default setting. Sheldon Richman points out that recognizing this is the key to righting the ship of public discourse:

For advocates of individual liberty it is tempting to believe the skeptics are right because the other side is associated with statist solutions to climate change. Most solutions call for government control over the burning of fossil fuels. No advocate of free markets can be comfortable with a position that entails substantial taxes and subsidies to achieve a political objective -- reduction of carbon emissions -- especially when the solutions promise no more than negligible reductions in temperature. (Temperature, not emissions per se, is supposed to be the believers' cause for concern.)

But picking sides in a scientific debate on the basis of proposed remedies is the wrong way to go about things. A believer in global warming could get the science right but the remedy wrong. That government shouldn't ban smoking doesn't mean smoking isn't bad for you. There is nothing incoherent about favoring free markets and thinking that global warming is a problem.

[Classical] Liberals should be careful about accepting the environmentalists' package deal. Do we really want to concede up front that there are only statist solutions to the possible threat from climate change? That would betray a lack of confidence in the freedom philosophy and the market process.

Skeptics often portray believers in global warming as anti-industrial, anti-free-market zealots who shelve objectivity because they want to usher in a era of primitivism and totalitarian control. Maybe some of them are and do. But all of them? That's hard to believe.

via Don Boudreaux

I would quibble over his use of the word belief, but otherwise, he has good advice. And so it is with some irony that we should also give special recognition to Al Gore for pursuing a non-statist solution to carbon dioxide accumulation.

Alex Tabarrok:

Richard Branson and Al Gore announced today a $25 million prize for the best way to remove significant amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

Prizes can draw on dispersed knowledge to produce solutions that were unlikely to have been foreseen in advance. Open source software has a similar advantage - with enough eyes all bugs are shallow.

I think prizes are becoming more common not because people have suddenly learned of their advantages but because the internet has magnified their advantages. A prize today can at low-cost attract and draw from a much larger pool of contestants than in the past. The rise of open source software and the rise of prizes are thus similar responses to the same improvement in communications technology.

Note that this also exemplifies something I've noted before: libertarians (like Tabarrok) tend to be optimistic about the resourcefulness of human ingenuity in confronting problems. It is very welcome indeed to see Branson, also a reputed libertarian, win Gore over to our side, if even only for this modest effort. Could it be hard to convince other activists as well?

Related ITA entries:

'You're Totally Wrong' by J. Claybourn
Al Gore and the difference between right and left by E. Seymour
Gratuities Accepted by Z. Wendling
Climate Engineering by Z. Wendling
The EPA versus global warming by J. Claybourn
The Next War of the World by D. Darlington
The "single biggest issue"? by J. Claybourn
Clear talk on global warming by J. Claybourn
Crichton answers Emmerich by E. Seymour
Libertarianism and Pollution's Externalities by J. Claybourn

Posted by Zach Wendling at March 22, 2007 12:29 PM

Comments

Spot on. (And, if I may add, it's exactly congruent with my thoughts in my last comment in the 'You're Totally Wrong' thread.)

Posted by: philosopher at March 22, 2007 01:56 PM | permalink

Doesn't it seem more likely that, instead of being a stalking horse for statists, that the debate about global climate change is really a debate about the tragedy of the commons?

Isn't this not a debate about what you take in but what you put out? Is that not because generally costs are well internalized to inputs -- you pay right at the pump for gasoline in direct proportion to what you take -- but not to outputs -- there's no meter on your tailpipe assessing you for waste disposal costs.

I don't see how that wouldn't be a fundamentally appealing proposition, namely adequately internalizing disposal costs, for any free-market advocate. Even the libertarians.

Posted by: Gregory Travis at March 22, 2007 02:10 PM | permalink

Greg, allow me to introduce you to the Pigou Club.

Besides, pushing for the internalization of costs limits the scope of possible solutions to climate change. Libertarians and other Cornucopians remain open to whatever innovations human ingenuity might come up with. See, for example, my post on climate engineering.

Posted by: Zach Wendling at March 22, 2007 02:22 PM | permalink

Great post, and my apologies for missing your related posts when I constructed a "Related ITA entries" in my prior post.

Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at March 22, 2007 02:27 PM | permalink

Well then, we're agreed. Algore's carbon tax coupled with his proposition to use carbon taxes to offset other taxes, shifting but not increasing the total burden of taxation. This must be an ITA first. What's next, will dogs lie down with cats?

Returning to seriousness, I personally look forward to what I think will be immense economic benefit to highly-increased waste (including, but not limited to, carbon) disposal costs. There's a lot of historic evidence that shows a marked uptick in return every time we get a little more serious about assessing the polluters for the consequence of their pollution.

Some people see addressing the sources of global warming as lost and sunk opportunity costs. I think they are much more likely to be viewed, in hindsight, as one of the best investments ever made.

Posted by: Gregory Travis at March 22, 2007 02:34 PM | permalink

So that's what this was all about -- accept the evidence, accept the activists policy prescriptions! Zach's hypothesis has a ring of truth to it, and would appear to explain why those policy prescriptions may appear skewed to the gov't regulation side (the free marketeers weren't in the prescriptions debate!).

I'll be interested to hear reactions to Gore's proposals. It would seem that a fair amount of gov't intervention may be needed at the very beginning of our effort to confront global warming, at least to cap emissions, to regulate carbon emittors, and (as was the case with the internet) to craft the kind of initiatives that will encourage the private development of new energy technology.


Posted by: JohnS at March 23, 2007 11:29 AM | permalink

Put your money where your mouth is. Invest in "Green Companies" stock. Just don't plan to hold it long term if you don't want to take a bath on it.

Posted by: Mike O at March 24, 2007 10:09 AM | permalink

In my experience, there isn't linakge between "green stock" portfolios and global warming. "Green" companies are companies that use "green" technologies, such as alternative energy, energy conservation, pollution control, etc.

But the structure of our markets doesn't reward such use, at least not significantly, due to the fact that energy consumption is subsidized and waste disposal is unmetered (the two are, of course, related).

In summary, you don't invest in "green" portfolios because they offer higher financial returns than dirty portfolios (they don't, they can't, see above).

You invest in them because it's the right thing to do.

Posted by: Gregory Travis at March 24, 2007 11:30 AM | permalink

I meant the companies who will be springing up to save us from our overproduction of CO2. By the way, anyone want to hazzard a guess at how much of the problem is caused by fewer trees worldwide?

Posted by: Mike O at March 24, 2007 02:44 PM | permalink

I'll hazard a guess that the problem is caused by too many humans, worldwide. Because that's what the overwhelming scientific consensus is, and absent a compelling anti-scientific alternative, it's what I have.

It sounds like you reject the premise outright (that the planet is warming, or that the warming is caused by an excess of human-generated greenhouse gases). Is that accurate?

Posted by: Gregory Travis at March 24, 2007 03:20 PM | permalink

A lot of anthropogenic warming believers are unwilling to accept one specific policy prescription that would reduce human CO2 output: shift toward nuclear energy. Waste is a problem, but part of it can be recycled; research should go into reducing the hazards of the remainder in one way or another.

Posted by: Alan K. Henderson at March 25, 2007 12:38 AM | permalink

There are always going to be opponents to nuclear energy but we shouldn't let that fact distract us from the issue of global warming.

Nor the fact that the largest opponent to nuclear energy, so far, has been the market. Due to the fact that costs are not sufficiently internalized, particularly the costs of waste disposal (by which I mean the stuff that goes out a smokestack) , a coal-burning plant yields a higher return on capital than does a nuke plant.

That may change if, as a result of addressing the issue of human-caused global warming, we internalize the waste costs of fossil-fuel burning electrical plants. That may bring the costs of nuclear power into play vs. the costs of fossil-fuel burning plants.

But we're talking about a scenario that, if it were to come to pass, would still be decades in the future. Not only would market resistance have to be overcome, but also would public opposition (as Alan points out), and, perhaps most significant, would be solving the problem of where we would get new nuclear plants.

The United States no longer possesses the domestic manufacturing capability to make the necessary parts of a nuclear generating plant. There are no domestic facilities capable of creating the forgings and castings needed for pressure vessels, circulating pumps, or any of the complicated, sophisticated, and often very large assemblies found in a nuclear generating plant.

Which means that we will have to purchase those components from countries which do have such manufacturing capability, almost certainly in Asia and more than likely China.

Which also means we will have to adopt new rules and procedures for verifying the quality of those components, which means reinstating another vanished profession in this country, namely the inspection and certification of nuclear powerplant components. That will require the re-creation of technical and university engineering curriculums, the re-creation of government certification bureaus, etc.

By the time it's all done and ready at the point that we can start actually pouring concrete, all of us here In The Agora will be dead and buried.

Posted by: Gregory Travis at March 25, 2007 11:01 AM | permalink

Gregory
It sounds like you reject the premise outright (that the planet is warming, or that the warming is caused by an excess of human-generated greenhouse gases). Is that accurate?
We are in a warming cycle after a cooling cycle that ended fairly recently. Human generated greenhouse gasses have some effect. Beyond that everyone is just guessing. I suspect that human generated greenhouse gasses as the primary cause and lessening them as the cure are both dubious.

Posted by: Mike O at March 25, 2007 02:35 PM | permalink

Sixty-plus years to develop practical nuclear energy?

Pebble-bed reactors may be competitive sooner:

"Liu Wei, vice-president of Beijing Institute of Nuclear Engineering, yesterday said that now is not the right time to use the pebble-bed technology commercially in building reactors, because the cost is still much higher than other technologies and it can be only used in small reactors...However, as the research evolves, the new technology could be competitive in 2020 or 2030, said Liu."

Without fossil fuels, nuclear is the only known practical alternative (where hydroelectric isn't possible), unless someone makes massive breakthroughs in geothermal.

Posted by: Alan K. Henderson at March 26, 2007 10:14 PM | permalink

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