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March 28, 2007

What are we to make of the Fred Thompson boomlet that is going on among the Republican Party regulars these days? A recent USA Today/Gallup poll shows Thompson, who first mentioned he's considering running two weeks ago, pulling in 12 percent of those polled, a solid third behind Giuliani (31 percent) and McCain (22 percent). Thompson's support comes mainly at the expense of Mr. Giuliani, who has dropped 13 points since the last Gallop poll, and Mr. Romney, who at three percent is approaching Tom Tancredo levels of support.

I think the reason that Thompson polls so well is not because how similar he is to Jack Bauer, but rather the general dissatisfaction the GOP regulars currently have with the current crop of "top tier" candidates. Even a year out, their problems are already well known: McCain is too old and too much of heretic; Giuliani is a social liberal; Romney is evidence flip-flopping is caused by Massachusetts drinking water, etc. etc. etc. The crown of conservative hero is still up for grabs, and rather than working for one of the dark horse guys like Brownback or Huckabee (how these "tiers" got assigned is beyond me), conservatives would rather be rescued by a man on a white horse. The GOP prefers coronating their candidates rather than grassroots fights, so perhaps this is the way it has to be. In politics as in life, success and money does tend to follow success and money. Uphill battles are called that for a reason. Nevertheless, Thompson, like Newt Gingrich who always seems to be mixed up in these things, polls well because he brings instant top tier status to the conservative cause without having to do the retail grunt work.

To that end, Thompson represents another idealized type for the GOP. With nearly 6 out of 10 Republicans saying they're dissatisfied with the current crop of candidates, the party is looking for a "none of the above" candidate who they can project as both conservative hero and election winner -- and getting both of those in one man is the tricky part. Thompson's sudden strength also bodes ill I think for the GOP's chances next year, as it shows the party is lost and looking to anyone for leadership, while the Dems at least have two blue chippers in Clinton and Obama to choose between (and don't count out Edwards).

Still, I could get behind Fred Thompson. Especially if he is Jack Bauer. Extra especially if he can convince fellow conservative Abby Carmichael to be his running mate.

Related ITA entries:

Gov. Mark Sanford: The GOP's Savior? by J. Claybourn
Why is Rudy Running? by D. Darlington

Posted by David Darlington at March 28, 2007 04:58 PM

Comments

Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at March 28, 2007 04:21 PM | permalink

Posted by: Eric Seymour at March 28, 2007 05:03 PM | permalink

Posted by: Alan K. Henderson at March 28, 2007 09:51 PM | permalink

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