You're In The Agora
Welcome to the Net's best new source for commentary on current events, culture, faith, science and much more.
Faith
Confessing Evangelical Evangelical Outpost He Lives Mere Comments Mirror of Justice Religion Clause Three Hierarchies Science Dispatches from the Culture Wars In the Pipeline New Scientist Tierney Lab Liberty A Constrained Vision Asymmetrical Information Becker-Posner Blog Hit & Run Instapundit Positive Liberty The Agitator Volokh Conspiracy Economics Café Hayek EconLog Environmental Economics Freakonomics Free Exchange Greg Mankiw J. Bradfor DeLong Marginal Revolution The Right Andrew Sullivan Best of the Web Eunomia Hugh Hewitt Michelle Malkin Power Line The American Scene The Corner The Left After the Future Ezra Klein Matthew Yglesias Political Animal Talking Points Memo Errata Daniel Drezner Democracy in America Dilbert Blog Lilek's Bleat Overcoming Bias The Sartorialist Hoosiers Daily Contentions Indiana Barrister Masson's Blog Matthew Stevenson |
|
« Diamond in the Ruff | Main | A Bears fan by any other name... » February 07, 2007Why is Rudy Running?Continuing Josh's train of thought from yesterday, one has to wonder why a liberal Northeastern mayor thinks he can win the GOP nomination. The obvious answer, as reported by the Freakonomics guys on their blog yesterday, is his poll numbers. Giuliani has a 61 percent approval rating from adults across the country according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll, and pulls a 76 percent approval rating from white evangelical Christians and 82 percent from self-proclaimed conservatives; this despite the fact that the mayor is pro-choice, pro-gun control, and on his third marriage (the second, to frequent Law and Order guest star Donna Hanover, having ended in an affair). He also sports an 81 percent approval rating among Republicans and leads most of the bigger primary states, who will play more of a role than usual this time around, given the ongoing trend of states frontloading their primaries. But as former President Colin Powell (1997-2005) can tell you, poll numbers don't tell the whole story, especially this early in the process where candidates exist more as idealized types in the public's mind rather than actual individuals with personal and political quirks (see also Obama, Barack). There is a considerable amount of this going on with Rudy Giuliani. Consider, for example, this from Patrick Ruffini's announcement that Rudy is his candidate: "In Mayor Giuliani I see my generation's Ronald Reagan -- a uniquely gifted leader who can both articulate and act on first principles. The War on Terror is the defining issue of our time as the struggle against Communism was in President Reagan's. There is no one I would trust more to continue this fight. . . . Second only to President Reagan's two terms, [Giuliani's tenure as mayor] was quite possibly the best eight year run of any statesman in the last generation." Patrick, as I reported last week, is now on Giuliani's paid web team, and you can certainly see the image they're creating here. Giuliani's (mostly deserved) 9/11 reputation covers up the rather sordid final year-or-so of his administration, which included his messy divorce and revelation of his affair (breaking the news to Hanover via press conference), his aborted run for the N.Y. Senate seat against Hillary Clinton, his battle against prostate cancer, the Farmersville Garbage Scandal, and so on. 9/11 saved the lame duck mayor's political life. When New York Magazine did its series of counterfactual "what if 9/11 never happened?" articles last fall, the one that struck me the most was this sad illustration of former mayor Giuliani, dining alone at the top of the World Trade Center, his career at an end. Rudy has still got that 9/11 shine that people are buying into. But when the campaign heats up in earnest and the less palatable (to conservatives) aspects of his term in New York (not to mention his political positions) are more widely known, I would expect that luster to diminish a bit. 9/11 will not be the trump card his supporters are expecting it to be--not with the current administration doing its best to undermine anyone who talks tough about terrorism. But the $64,000 question is, who's the "real conservative" that's going to take on Rudy from the right? McCain may be pretty conservative in real life, but he has alienated enough of the base over his career to make him an unlikely standard-bearer. Romney? Another idealized type at the moment whose details are still being filled in. So far, the confirmed "real conservatives" in the race are lesser-known guys like Senator Sam Brownback--guys who need to go grassroots and win some straw polls and primaries before the moneyed interests and media kingmakers take them seriously. This certainly could happen--especially if the big guys continue to underwhelm--but the odds are long. Barring a Boise State-style victory by a Brownback or a Huckabee, do conservatives come out for Romney or Giuliani by default? For now, conservatism is without a first-tier champion. How else do you explain people actually pining for the return of Newt Gingrich? Posted by David Darlington at February 7, 2007 05:00 PM Commentsin watching the news yesterday when rudy's supporters came out in force, they kept repeating "the american public wants to know who can protect us and make that decision at 3am on how to best thwart a terror attack." i think the bush administration already played out that card's usefulness. newt. my god, someone better has to be out there on the republican side. Posted by: Anonymous at February 8, 2007 08:55 AM | permalink Good post. Regarding Giuliani's personal life, most social conservatives are willing to forgive a candidate's personal transgressions if he toes the line on the issues. Since Rudy both had an affair and is pro-choice, that will turn off a lot of conservative voters once the primary gets going. Posted by: Eric Seymour at February 8, 2007 09:03 AM | permalink Good post David. I agree with Eric in that I just don't think the candidate's personal life is as big of a deciding factor as some make it out to be. This applies to Romney as much as it does Rudy. But when they have liberal or big government policies as well, conservatives naturally become skeptical. And so I think it is ultimately Rudy and Romney's policy stances which will serve as a roadblock to their nomination. Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at February 8, 2007 09:30 AM | permalink Regarding Giuliani's personal life, most social conservatives are willing to forgive a candidate's personal transgressions if he toes the line on the issues. How about if he flip-flops on the issues? Posted by: JohnS at February 8, 2007 11:11 AM | permalink Yes, perhaps Rudy has changed his stance on that to court conservatives. Even so, there's a difference between changing your mind after 7 years and changing it over a few months, or weeks. Posted by: Eric Seymour at February 8, 2007 01:37 PM | permalink [GEORGE] WILL: Is your support of partial birth abortion firm? Mayor GIULIANI: All of my positions are firm. I have strong viewpoints. I express them. And I--I do not think that it makes sense to be changing your position.... Unless you're running in the Republican Presidential primaries, that is! Posted by: JohnS at February 8, 2007 02:40 PM | permalink Post a comment |
|
---- ADVERTISEMENTS ----
|