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December 05, 2006
So What Are You Worried About?
Recently, Square Dealer told us about properly judging what makes us happy and what we should spend our money on. Last week's Time cover story, on the other hand, tells us what we should be worried about, and how terribly wrong we usually are in judging threats. Of course there's the old saw about airline travel (a couple hundred deaths annually, in a bad year) being much safer than automobile travel (44,000 deaths annually), but there are even better examples in the article (unfortunately I have yet to find online the chart that accompanied the print version). It seems our prehistoric brains are programmed to respond more strongly to the big, cataclysmic events that are out of our control (such as airplane crashes or terrorism), or to the novel threats (such as bird flu or mad cow, which have yet to cause a single death in the U.S.), than to the more mundane, but far more likely threats (such as heart disease, which kills 685k annually, or cancers, which kill 557k annually, or even regular flu, which kills 36k annually). Even our fears of violent crime are somewhat unjustified, as roughly twice as many people die from their own hands (31k) than from the hands of others (17k homicides annually).
Posted by David Darlington at December 5, 2006 08:30 PM
There's something about these charts that always make me wonder. Is it so irrational for me to worry about dying from the hand of another rather than my own hand? Perhaps the 31k that die each year from their own doing are far more reckless, or ignorant, or dangerous than me. If I lead a safe lifestyle and make wise decisions, it doesn't seem so irrational to think I'm far more likely to die from the hands of others.
The same could be said of other things, such as airline travel. Yes more people die from car deaths, but what if you take out drunk drivers, wreckless drivers, and all those under the age of 25 and over the age of 65. I'd imagine that the numbers suddenly get a little closer. Now airline travel may still be safer, but probably less so, relatively speaking.
I understand the point of these graphs, but it doesn't always seem so irrational to fear things out of your control compared to those within your control when you're a safe, judicious person.
Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at December 5, 2006 09:13 PM | permalink
Your first point is a fair one. We do have to make sure stats are compared correctly. In the article, there's the point about how people are more likely to die from skydiving than from ingesting pesticides through what they eat, but if you don't skydive, your risk of dieing while skydiving is zero. (though you still have a 1 in 250,000 chance of being hit by a falling airplane ).
As for your point about driving, the article does address this to some extent. It says we tend to underestimate how dangerously we act on the road. It's always the other guy's simultaneous speeding, switching lanes, and talking on his cell phone that is going to cause trouble, not ours.
Posted by: David at December 5, 2006 09:25 PM | permalink
And even if someone else is the cause of the wreck, it's still our car that the fool might blindside.
Posted by: philosopher at December 5, 2006 11:19 PM | permalink
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