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December 04, 2006

Climate Engineering

The latest development in global climate change has been a new report headed by former World Bank economist Nicholas Stern, wherein he estimates the world could reduce greenhouse gases, and therefore avoid the effects of climate change, by expending around 1% of global GDP. This sounds huge until we raise the ever-pertinent question, Relative to what? Well, the Stern estimation is that doing nothing and suffering the consequences will cost between 5-20% of GDP, so sacrificing 1% clearly makes sense. That is, of course, if one accepts the numbers Stern throws around, which many of the economists I've been reading -- and not just the free-marketeers -- find hard to swallow.

Nevertheless, Arnold Kling takes them as given and asks the ever-pertinent question again. Reducing greenhouse gases incurs a cost that's quite large in absolute terms, to wit, approximately $400 billion per year. But how big is that compared to the alternatives? And here he reaches far beyond his expertise and speculates that reducing greenhouse gases is not the only strategy for combating global climate change. He suggests that technological wizardry, which he admits he doesn't know a fig about, could mitigate greenhouse gases at a cost much lower than $400B. He follows up with a couple of posts on his blog that list some speculative technologies, such as reflectors or sulfate seeding.

Despite my education, I'm not qualified to comment on the feasibility of these technologies, either, but I do think the speculation is illustrative of a larger divide in environmental policy. Kling represents the Cornucopian worldview at its most optimistic, that is, he belongs to a school that approaches environmental problems with great optimism about the power of human ingenuity to overcome current constraints through technological improvement. Countering this would be the Neo-Malthusians, of whom Jared Diamond has become the most recent face. I went to grad school with quite a few of his fellow travelers, and so feel comfortable generalizing that their reaction to suggestions of geoengineering will be lukewarm at best. Afterall, technology, in an abstract sense, can explain much of the mucking up we've done of the Earth so far. Are we to trust it to lead us out of our troubles as well?

Posted by Zach Wendling at December 4, 2006 03:50 PM

Comments

Zach, you seem to be implying that the Dasgupta criticism is about this kinds of claim: "the Stern estimation is that doing nothing and suffering the consequences will cost between 5-20% of GDP, so sacrificing 1% clearly makes sense." As framed, that "makes sense" is a practical, technocratic kind of "makes sense", not entirely dissimilar ot the way in which it makes sense if you have any sort of future horizon to take measures to pay off your most expensive debts, rather than letting them accrue. But Dasgupta is concerned with an _ethical_ parameter of Stern's argument, not a practical one; in particular, he is concerned that there's an incongruity between how Stern views synchronic as opposed to diachronic distributional inequalities.

(Or, um, that's what it looks like to me, anyway. Me no expert neither!)

Posted by: philosopher at December 4, 2006 08:21 AM | permalink

Actually, it is DeLong's penultimate paragraph to which I was refering. And besides, the exact nature of the quibble is beyond the scope of this post, since the rest of the argument proceeds from taking the Stern numbers as given.

Posted by: Zach Wendling at December 4, 2006 11:17 AM | permalink

I agree that it doesn't impact the latter two paragraphs of the post. But regarding the first paragraph, this isn't just a quibble -- I believe that you are significantly misrepresenting DeLong (in his agreement with Dasgupta about eta, and thus misrepresenting Dasgupta as well) as raising problems for the non-normative parts of the Stern report. But the debate about the ethically appropriate value of eta is a normative one.

I'm sure you can find some other non-libertarian economists out there to support your point in the last part of your first paragraph. But as near as I can tell, your link to this particular argument by this particular economist, fails to do so.

Posted by: philosopher at December 4, 2006 12:43 PM | permalink

I wonder what costs will be incurred by rapidly melting ice sheets that would put most of the city I live in (NYC) under water, prolonged droughts and heat waves, powerful hurricanes in new areas, and the likely extinction of 50 percent of species. That's what we'll be facing according to climate researcher and NASA scientist James Hansen if we don't limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit within the next 10 years.
And once climate change occurs, it will be irreversible.

Posted by: JohnS at December 4, 2006 04:34 PM | permalink

Zach,
http://www.theotherjournal.com/print.php?id=171

That post describes one Christian perspective on environmentalism.

It certainly is an interesting take on why environmentalism resonates so well with modern man.

Posted by: Dave S. at December 5, 2006 12:26 AM | permalink

JohnS--Not that I buy into it, but it would be interesting to know if Hansen's hypothesis is his most likely scenario or the worst case amongst a group of more likely ones. Also, what does Hansen suggest we do to avoid his scenario? Would changing all lightbulbs to flourescent do the trick or would we all have go back to candles and whale oil for lighting?

Posted by: ucfengr at December 6, 2006 03:25 PM | permalink

ucfengr

It's the scenario. Period.

Posted by: JohnS at December 6, 2006 06:15 PM | permalink

An increase of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (about 1 degree Celsius) over the next decade would probably be catastrophic. The question, I think, is how likely that is to occur, given that the temperature has increased by that much in the last century

Posted by: Eric Seymour at December 11, 2006 10:45 AM | permalink

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