You're In The Agora
Welcome to the Net's best new source for commentary on current events, culture, faith, science and much more.
Faith
Confessing Evangelical Evangelical Outpost He Lives Mere Comments Mirror of Justice Religion Clause Three Hierarchies Science Dispatches from the Culture Wars In the Pipeline New Scientist Tierney Lab Liberty A Constrained Vision Asymmetrical Information Becker-Posner Blog Hit & Run Instapundit Positive Liberty The Agitator Volokh Conspiracy Economics Café Hayek EconLog Environmental Economics Freakonomics Free Exchange Greg Mankiw J. Bradfor DeLong Marginal Revolution The Right Andrew Sullivan Best of the Web Eunomia Hugh Hewitt Michelle Malkin Power Line The American Scene The Corner The Left After the Future Ezra Klein Matthew Yglesias Political Animal Talking Points Memo Errata Daniel Drezner Democracy in America Dilbert Blog Lilek's Bleat Overcoming Bias The Sartorialist Hoosiers Daily Contentions Indiana Barrister Masson's Blog Matthew Stevenson |
|
« Not quite Guy Fawkes, but... | Main | You Never Know » November 02, 2006A Clean Sweep for the Dems?Elections guru Larry Sabato asks a startling question about the upcoming elections: "when's the last time a major political party has failed to capture a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship of the opposing party in a federal election year?" The answer is, if it has ever happened before, it was before World War II. And yet, Sabato's team "cannot identify a single election for Senate, House or Governor in which a Republican is likely to succeed a Democrat in office." Talk about a perfect storm. That means no open seats currently held by a Democrat will change hands and no Democrat incumbent will be defeated. Even in the biggest electoral routs in American history, such as in the Watergate Congress of 1974, there were always a handful of lucky candidates from the defeated party that bucked the trend. While Sabato & Co. say the chances of an absolute shutout are no greater than 50/50, the fact that it is within the realm of possibility underscores how dire the Republicans' position is right now. For example, the best chances in the Senate that the GOP has of picking up currently Democratic seats are in New Jersey, where Tom Kean trails incumbent Bob Menendez by an average of 5 points, and in Maryland, where Michael Steele trails Ben Cardin by about 7 points. Thin branches to stand on indeed. On the other hand, if the GOP succeeds in taking a solitary Democratic seat (I'm holding out hope for Kean in the homeland), the White House can spin it as "exceeding expectations." And they probably will. Posted by David Darlington at November 2, 2006 09:47 PM CommentsNot even Corker vs. Ford? Posted by: Alan K. Henderson at November 3, 2006 03:20 AM | permalink That's not an open seat currently held by a Democrat - Corker and Ford are fighting over retiring GOP Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist's seat. Posted by: JohnS at November 3, 2006 04:18 AM | permalink Sabato's good, but I beg to differ; the key word in your bolded sentence is likely. There are quite a few seats Democratic seats that could flip. The Maryland Senate seat, with LG Steele moving fast on the outside, could well be one, as could a pair of Georgia congressional seats. I don't think the Democrats will get to repeat the electoral Passover of 1994, where no Republican incumbants lost, but it may well be close to that. Posted by: Mark Byron at November 3, 2006 06:17 AM | permalink Post a comment |
|
---- ADVERTISEMENTS ----
|