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October 26, 2006
Comfortable Republicans Holding Back
My latest column for the Howey Political Report is available. I've reposted it below as well.
Indiana's congressional delegation has become an unlikely focal point for the Republican Party's potential loss of control in Congress in spite of its traditionally red history. U.S. Representatives Chris Chocola, Mike Sodrel and John Hostettler are among the nation's most vulnerable Republicans. The Democrats need only 15 seats to regain control of the U.S. House and so Indiana has become an obvious battleground.
Unfortunately for Republicans, the Democrats' renewed optimism has helped empty their supporter's wallets and boost the Democrats' stash of campaign dollars. Although the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) once held a commanding fundraising lead, by the end of September the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) reported $36 million on hand, compared with $39 million for the NRCC.
In the Senate races, things look even worse for the GOP. The
Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) has raised $23 million compared to the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC)'s $12 million. Yet in spite of all of this, Republicans blessed with enormous war chests and commanding leads in their races aren't always sharing the wealth.
Indiana's elder statesman Sen. Dick Lugar, for example, had $4,011,244 cash on hand as of the July 15th reporting deadline. Earlier this week the New York Times reported he had transferred a mere $75,000 from that. And even as he sits on millions of dollars, daily one can find his advertisements on television. But why would Sen. Lugar go to all of these lengths when he has no challenger?
Lugar isn't alone in his unwillingness to help fellow Republicans in need. Republican Sens. Richard Shelby of Alabama and Kay Bailey Hutchison of Texas both have more than $9 million in their campaign accounts. Lugar may have no opponent, but Shelby isn't even up for re-election this year. In spite of this, and a campaign account of $11.6 million, he's only given $15,000 to the NRSC. With Mr. Shelby's chairmanship of the banking committee on the line, why is he holding back?
Sen. Hutchison has roughly $9.5 million on hand and a commanding lead of 20 points in the polls, but she has given only $115,000 to the NRSC. That may sound like a lot, but it is little more than 1 percent of her campaign war chest.
Five democrats have transferred $1 million or more to the DSCC, but only one has done the same for the NRSC. It helps explain why the DSCC has $23 million compared to the NRSC's $12 million. With the Senate up for grabs, the comfortable Republicans' behavior is baffling.
If those like Sen. Lugar felt like the Senate races weren't in need of their help, one would at least think he would choose to help fellow Hoosier Republicans such as Sodrel, Chocola, and Hostettler.
Perhaps these comfortable candidates are simply greedy. Or worse, perhaps this is an indication of their own distaste for the GOP's direction and apathy toward it losing control of Congress.
Posted by Joshua Claybourn at October 26, 2006 02:35 PM
I have two questions:
1. Do politicians have a history of sharing their war chests with less-funded candidates from their state in crucial elections?
2. All GOP Congressional candidates have a common source of potential campaign funds: the RNC. In which races is the RNC putting its money?
Posted by: Alan K. Henderson at October 26, 2006 03:23 PM | permalink
According to a recent op-ed by Dick Morris, The DNC is "broke and borrowing," while the GOP (RNC?) can "fully fund" all their key races
Posted by: Eric Seymour at October 26, 2006 04:56 PM | permalink
There are significant differences between the Congressional Committees, the Senatorial Committees, and the national parties (RNC and DNC). Nevertheless, taken together, the GOP still maintains a fundraising edge. But the edge is smaller than normal and, the thrust of this column argues, it could be much larger if certain GOP candidates shared the wealth.
In answer to your question Alan, it is relatively common.
Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at October 26, 2006 05:12 PM | permalink
Oh, I absolutely agree with the point of the column, Josh. I was just responding to Alan's comment about RNC funding. I'm particularly disappointed that Lugar is not only not donating, but running ads when he's not even opposed.
Posted by: Eric Seymour at October 26, 2006 05:51 PM | permalink
...perhaps this is an indication of their own distaste for the GOP's direction and apathy toward it losing control of Congress.
I think this about nails it.
Posted by: JohnS at October 26, 2006 07:47 PM | permalink
Could Lugar be preparing for an '08 presidential bid?
Posted by: Michael LoPrete at October 27, 2006 08:16 AM | permalink
As much as I longed for Lugar to win in the 1996 and 2000 primaries, I think that he'll be too old in 2008 (76) to be elected President.
Posted by: Eric Seymour at October 27, 2006 10:41 AM | permalink
Eric,
It'll really depend on his health, but that said, I think his candidacy would knock the wind out of pretty much any democratic candidate.
When it comes down to it, '08 should be an easy win for the Republicans, at least as the presidency goes. Tap a moderate, distance yourself from some of Bush's policies, and that should be it.
Posted by: Michael LoPrete at October 27, 2006 02:11 PM | permalink
Where Dick Morris is getting his information from is questionable. I have seen recently on several fronts (CNN, Fox, MSNBC) that both parties have more than enough money. Plus, very few Dems are saying anything poorly about Dean.
Where Morris gets 98% of his information is anyone's guess. He's about as reliable as Al Frankin.
Posted by: Anon at October 27, 2006 07:20 PM | permalink
Tap a moderate, distance yourself from some of Bush's policies, and that should be it.
Isn't that what the Dems are planning on doing? Heh.
Posted by: Nick Blesch at October 28, 2006 03:58 AM | permalink
bad pun warning...
Lugar/Thompson - gunning for your vote in 2008
(Tommy Thompson isn't too old for a White House run)
Posted by: Alan K. Henderson at October 28, 2006 04:47 PM | permalink
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