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October 14, 2006

Another Brick in the Wall

First it was the soccer moms. Now will religous whites abandon the GOP this November? Gallup seems to think so:

An analysis of USA Today/Gallup poll trend data indicates that while Democrats have made gains across the board on the generic Congressional ballot in the latest Oct. 6-8 survey, the change has been greater among religious whites than among less religious whites and among non whites. At this point, religious whites are equally as likely to say they will vote Democratic as Republican, a marked change from their strong tilt towards the Republicans in surveys conducted June through September.

For the purpose of political analysis this year, Gallup has divided the American population into three groups based on race and church attendance: Religious whites (defined as whites who self-report attending church weekly or almost every week), less religious whites (defined as whites who self-report attending church monthly or less often), and all others.
[...]

Religious whites went from an average Democratic disadvantage of 23 points across the June through September months, to dead even in October. Less religious whites shifted only seven points across these two time periods, while the group of "all others" shifted 9 points.
[...]

The data reviewed here suggest that the Republicans have lost -- at least temporarily -- some of the disproportionate advantage in voting preference they have enjoyed among religious whites. This group continues to be much more likely than less religious whites or nonwhites to support the Republican candidate in their House race, and is currently as likely to support a Democrat as a Republican Congressional candidate. But, the difference between religious whites and these other two groups has narrowed somewhat as of the Oct. 6-8 poll.

Surely the Mark Foley scandal has had some impact on the drop in support for the GOP among white Christians (who are what we're really talking about here). Also, I think, is the growing realization among Christian conservatives that the kingmakers in the GOP don't take them seriously. There have been reports in recent weeks that Karl Rove, et al, consider the major players in the Christian Right "nuts," and only give them enough to maintain voter turnout. That's why I can't get worked up over the article ITA reader "philosopher" linked to earlier this week, or over the various "fundamentalist takeover" scaremongers like Andrew Sullivan, Christie Whitman, or Kevin Phillips. As I've said before, the Christian Right is on the decline and is more played than player anyway, so it doesn't surprise me that religious whites might just stay home this time around.

(The quotes from Gallup are via The Moderate Voice, since I don't have complete access to the Gallup site)

Posted by David Darlington at October 14, 2006 03:37 PM

Comments

Posted by: JohnS at October 15, 2006 11:02 AM | permalink

Posted by: philosopher at October 15, 2006 12:36 PM | permalink

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