Democratic party strategists (not the grassroots who continue to struggle through the Bush Years) might actually welcome the Elliott scenario, as some economists are predicting an economic downturn in '07as the housing market cools (collapses?) and as the reality sinks in that we have lost the war in Iraq (that won't happen until after November). Better to leave the Republicans holding the bag when the poo-storm hits, the thinking might go, leaving the Dems in even better shape for '08---the big enchilada.

I give up trying to use style tags here! Let's try that again.

Democratic party strategists (not the grassroots who continue to struggle through the Bush Years) might actually welcome the Elliott scenario, as some economists are predicting an economic downturn in '07as the housing market cools (collapses?) and as the reality sinks in that we have lost the war in Iraq (that won't happen until after November). Better to leave the Republicans holding the bag when the poo-storm hits, the thinking might go, leaving the Dems in even better shape for '08---the big enchilada.

Congressional Quarterly just came out with projections that the GOP will keep both houses as well: http://sixers.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MGJhYmJmODIwODc0YmY0ZDZhOTNiMzRlOTBkZTQzOGY=.

It's calling for at least 220 seats in the House (and 12 tossups) for the Republicans and 51 in the Senate (and 5 tossups).

"I remarked to a number of friends that I did not think the nation would elect a Democrat again until the Republicans had led us into a serious period of depression and unemployment."

FDR in a 1924 letter to Delaware attorney Willard Saulsbury after that year's disappointing elections.

http://hnn.us/articles/8669.html

Given that (i) at the state/local level the two parties are really fairly close to even in Indiana (the statehouse flips control something like every other election, I think), but (ii) right now the GOP has 7 of the 9 Congressional seats, and moreover (iii) the general prevailing political wind these days is blowing in the Dems favor: it really isn't all that surprising that as many as 3 seats might flip from R to D this time around.

I'd note that in Ohio, the Gop outnumbers the Dems something like 2 to 1 in the state legislature; and their current congressional delegation is 11 Republicans and 7 Democrats. So their Congressional ratio is both closer to their statehouse ratio, and moreover their Congressional ratio is already on the Dem-leaning side of their statehouse ratio. Really, the surprising thing seems to me to be more: why is it that Indiana is so stalwartly Republican in presidential elections, and Ohio the swing state, and not the other way around?