« Clinton Runs for 39 Yards in Loss | Main | Maybe He Should Kiss a Koran »

September 17, 2006

HPR Column

My latest submission for the Howey Political Report can be read by clicking the link below.


There's a growing consensus among polical pundits that Republicans will suffer in this year's mid-term elections. Even the solidly red state of Indiana is up for grabs. As Indiana's chief political guru Brian Howey put it, "U.S. Reps. Chris Chocola, Mike Sodrel and John Hostettler are in deep trouble over the war, now being recast by President Bush and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld as a battle against 'Islamic fascism.'"

Their plight isn't unique; the war in Iraq threatens to undermine the campaigns of numerous Republican congressional candidates across the country. But what makes these three unique is that none of them voted for the Iraq war in October of 2002, yet it threatens to unseat them anyway. Hostettler flatly voted against it, and Reps. Chocola and Sodrel had not yet been elected. How, then, could they let themselves get caught up in its negative aftermath?

Certainly voter ignorance is partly to blame. Anyone with an "R" after their name is assumed to have supported the initial decision to go in and, to a lesser degree, is assumed to support President Bush's style of leadership. But neither of these portrayals are always fair, particularly for John Hostettler. Hostettler follows his own line and consistently bucks the wishes of the national party.

Following his "no" vote on the war in Iraq, Vice President Cheney cancelled a planned fundraiser in the 8th district. He has often voted against large Republican spending bills, including a Hurricane Katrina relief package. While Chocola and Sodrel are typically more likely to agree with President Bush, they're by no means a carbon copy either.

Clearly Hostettler and others like him throughout the country stand to gain, politically speaking, by separating themselves from President Bush and highlighting their independent track record. But this task will prove particularly difficult for Hostettler. As of the July 15 reporting deadline, he had only $195,146 on hand, while challenger Brad Ellsworth had over three times that amount. Hostettler is therefore forced to rely on the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) for help, and there's little chance the national party will spend money praising a candidate's independence from the very hand that's feeding it.

The NRCC and its candidates are ultimately left in a bind - either highlight candidate independence, implicitly criticizing the national party, or risk losing control of the House. If a recent Washington Post story is any indication, the NRCC may simply choose a third option and go negative. The Post reports the NRCC enlisted veteran party strategist Terry Nelson to "run a campaign that will coordinate with Senate Republicans on ads that similarly will rely on the best of the worst that researchers have dug up on Democrats."

That's a gamble, given that such bickering is partly to blame for the Republican poll drop already. But with plans to spend more than $50 million on advertising (a midterm election record), the Republicans aren't backing down without a fight. But for the investment to pay off, the NRCC's best efforts may be spent on helping candidates portray an independent, outside-the-beltway image.

Posted by Joshua Claybourn at September 17, 2006 07:38 PM

Comments

Nice work, JC.

Posted by: philosopher at September 17, 2006 10:29 PM | permalink

Sure, people should check voting records. However, the fact is that 97.5% of all House Republicans voted for the war and only 2.5% voted against. It is not completely illogical to punish an entire political party when support for the war was that high.

Posted by: Joel Betow at September 18, 2006 01:51 AM | permalink

Further, while Chocola may not have been in Congress to vote for the war, his campaign web site makes it clear he supports being in Iraq now and opposes any time table for withdrawal. He can try the argument (if that is his position) that we shouldn't have invaded but now that we are there we must finish the fight. However, the voters aren't obligated to buy that argument.

Posted by: Joel Betow at September 18, 2006 02:24 AM | permalink

This is all hilarious to me. What did people think was going to happen 2-3 years ago when everyone was all gung-ho for the war? Did they think the occupation would go swimmingly? I find it very interesting, because obviously many these supposed peaceniks that constitute the "majority" of the population were once firmly in support of the war, and they elected GWB with a solid majority to the presidency in the aftermath of that war. Why are voters abandoning the president now? What's changed? The mission hasn't. The strategy hasn't, which means that likelihood of success hasn't. Hmmm.

Posted by: Chuck at September 18, 2006 08:54 AM | permalink

What's changed? The mission hasn't.

I thought the misson was accomplished?

Posted by: Foltz at September 18, 2006 10:36 AM | permalink

"What's changed? The mission hasn't. The strategy hasn't, which means that likelihood of success hasn't." Objectively, yes; but we might just know a lot more now that we didn't know at the time. Just to take a recent example, it was not well-covered prior to the election just how thoroughly the WH deceived the country about the real lack of evidence for serious Iraqi WMDs; or that the WH was so unserious about reconstruction that it staffed the CPA almost entirely with unqualified hacks & loyalists.

Posted by: philosopher at September 18, 2006 12:29 PM | permalink

Sure, people should check voting records. However, the fact is that 97.5% of all House Republicans voted for the war and only 2.5% voted against. It is not completely illogical to punish an entire political party when support for the war was that high.

Rep. Hostettler has been rather outspoken against the war from the beginning and clearly voted against it, so yes, I do think it's unfair to punish him for it.

Further, while Chocola may not have been in Congress to vote for the war, his campaign web site makes it clear he supports being in Iraq now and opposes any time table for withdrawal.

That's why I wrote, "While Chocola and Sodrel are typically more likely to agree with President Bush, they're by no means a carbon copy either." Besides, as I said, Hostettler was the thrust of the article.

Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at September 19, 2006 12:12 AM | permalink

Josh,

I'm not suggesting that it is necessarily wise for someone to oppose Hostettler because he is affiliated with a political party that overwhelmingly supported invading Iraq. In fact, it could make a lot of sense to reward his courage in bucking his party. On the other hand, I might point out the Hostlettler voted in favor of a GOP resolution declaring the war in Iraq as a valid part of the war on terror and rejecting a timetable for withdrawal. So, I stand by my point that it isn't completely illogical to punish an entire political party. Certainly, when Republican had their "contract with America" they made no attempt to exempt more conservative Democrats from their campaign.

Perhaps rather than the conscience of the individual voter I was looking at it from the standpoint of the battle between the parties.

For instance, the national Republican party decided that the highest principle in Rhode Island's Republican primary was the idea that the conservative candidate was likely to lose in November and the party leadership found it more important to preserve the GOP majority in the Senate and thus endorsed a candidate, Chafee, who is outside the mainstream of the party. Many individual Rhode Island Republicans, however, found the highest principle in supporting a nominee who reflects their values.

My first vote for a U.S. Senator was in favor of Henry Bellmon, R-Oklahoma. I was rewarding him for his support of Gerald Ford's negotiations on the Panama Canal treaty, his support for school integration, and his support for the Equal Rights amendment. In many ways, I was closer ideologically to his Democratic opponent, Rep. Ed Edmondson, but found Edmondson to be of somewhat lesser integrity. As a 13-year-old, I had been heartbroken that Bellmon had one his first term, having defeated political giant Mike Monroney, for whom I spent countless hours putting up fence straddlers or placing handbills under car windshield wipers.

If your main focus was Hostettler, you may have stepped on your message and have done better by leaving folks such as Chocola out.

Finally, my main interest was in dialogue with you rather than simply dismissing what you wrote.

Posted by: Joel Betow at September 19, 2006 02:42 AM | permalink

Post a comment




Remember Me?





(you may use HTML tags for style)

 
---- ADVERTISEMENTS ----



Rankings and Aggregators
Technocrati
Blogdom of God
Who Links Here

Site Meter