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June 02, 2006
Four More Years?
Here's a great question from Red State: If George W. Bush were eligible for a third term, would you support him in the 2008 primary? Mark Byron answers with qualified yes, citing Bush's experience, relative youth, and general weakness in the potential GOP alternatives.
I'm more inclined to answer in the negative myself. The tremendous heat the administration has been under is clearly taking its toll, and a fresh face might be exactly what the country (and the party) needs. I don't see the administration's approval rating ever getting back over 50 percent barring an unprecedented shift in media coverage and perhaps a near total administrative housecleaning (Rumsfeld, Cheney, etc.). Fairly or unfairly, several administration figures are carrying public relations baggage, which is quite difficult to get rid of (liberal or conservative, the media loves to peg people with labels and hates changing them). However, I do share Mark's concern about the relative unattractiveness of the more well known GOP alternatives. If the party were to dump the president in a hypothetical third time around, to whom would the GOP go?
Posted by David Darlington at June 2, 2006 08:38 PM
I like many of the alternatives. George Allen is both solidly conservative and very marketable. Chuck Hagel may ruffle some hardline feathers, but he's a statesman with a sensible approach. And of course John McCain should be able to please conservatives when it counts most, while still unifying most moderates. Those are likely candidates. Then there's a long list of excellent theoretical candidates, who aren't likely to run but remain longshots. Those include Condi Rice and Mike Pence (from different ends of the spectrum).
Whether you're a GOP moderate or a bright red conservative, I think you'd have to be happy with the list of available candidates.
Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at June 2, 2006 11:51 PM | permalink
To be a bit blunt, the GOP field is very strong heading into 2008. It's just that Bush has been like an abusive lover that a certain segment of conservatives has trouble letting go of.
We can do better, and we will do better.
Posted by: Adam Herman at June 3, 2006 03:32 AM | permalink
The media coverage? Memory serves me right, Clinton faced a just as hostile media and did just fine.
The biggest news item of our day is the war in Iraq. What do you expect?
Posted by: Kevin at June 3, 2006 11:08 AM | permalink
Oh yes, by all means, let's have Bush run for a third term. Considering his poll numbers, I guess he'll have to rig up quite a few more states besides Florida and Ohio if he's gonna "win" a third term.
Posted by: JohnS at June 3, 2006 11:31 AM | permalink
Josh-- Being my Senator and all, I like George Allen a lot, but with his solid conservatism combined with his good ol' boy personality I think he's potentially too Bush-like for the public to find him palatable. I like Hagel a lot, and McCain and Giuliani, but each of those guys has issues that might kill them with the base. And as Mark Byron notes, Huckabee and Brownback have to break out of the single digits to be viable. Rice, as you say, remains a fantasy candidate.
Allen and Mitt Romney are the ones I find most interesting so far, but both have a lot to prove.
Posted by: David at June 3, 2006 12:29 PM | permalink
What a roundabout way of asking your question. Compare:
- (Your hypothetical) Bush is eligible for a third term, but R's don't want him; whom should they nominate instead?
- (The actual situation) Bush isn't eligible for a third term; whom should the R's nominate?
What's the difference?
Posted by: wahoofive at June 3, 2006 01:03 PM | permalink
I will vote for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time if Hagel is nominated, or possibly (unless a Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum is the Repbulican) if Hillary is nominated.
Posted by: Chuck at June 5, 2006 10:04 AM | permalink
I find many of the front-runners that the media seem to be embracing as very unattractive as a conservative. John McCain might be tolerable to me personally. Rudy Guiliani and George Pataki do little to excite me.
I think the best options might be Allen or Mike Huckabee (from Arkansas). I think David makes a valid point that could be applied to both of these individuals in that they are very similar to Bush and might face a backlash from those who are upset with the current administration.
I think this next presidential election does promise to be very interesting. I'm wondering if some like Allen and McCain might be peaking a bit too early (sort of like Fred Thompson in 2000). Personally, my hope is that whoever wins the election will nominate Richard Lugar for Secretary of State.
Posted by: Trey McClain at June 5, 2006 03:16 PM | permalink
"I think the best options might be Allen or Mike Huckabee (from Arkansas)."
And think of the campaign slogan/buttons/bumper stickers: I [heart] Huckabee!
Posted by: lawyerchik1 at June 5, 2006 05:37 PM | permalink
Uh oh! McCain just voted against the constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage!
OK. Next case. Flag burning...a HOT issue!
Posted by: JohnS at June 7, 2006 11:56 AM | permalink
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