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January 22, 2006

Howey's Podcast Pilot and Telecom Reform

I participated in a political forum Friday night at the request of Indiana political analyst (and forum host) Brian Howey. The forum was the pilot program for a series of similar discussions that Howey plans to publish in podcast format, and its audio will be available in the next day or so. ITA will link to it at that time. Other participants were the Muncie Star-Press's Rick Yencer, Dr. Robert Yadon of Ball State's Digital Policy Institute, and Indiana Senator Brandt Hershman, who has been prominent during the current session of the Indiana General Assembly, mostly because of his Senate Bill 245, which is similar to bills pending in Missouri and other states, and would deregulate telecom and centralize video franchising. The Jasper County Republican stated that the bill's goals are giving Indiana businesses the ability to compete in the broadband-enabled economy, more video choice, and more investment in Indiana.

Not surprisingly, the main topic of the forum was S.B. 245, which has come under fire from some Democrats for relying on false premises, guaranteeing higher taxes, and stifling local investment in broadband technology. The bill has bipartisan support, but some who support the bill have stalled on whether a short session is the right time for such a complex package.

I could write pages on this bill, but it would be terribly boring to nearly everyone outside of Sen. Hershman and the rival lobbyists connected to this issue. Instead, I offer two of the several choices made by the bill, and wonder if Indiana is ready to take the risks inherent in these choices.

UPDATE: Due to technical difficulties, I am sad to announce that the podcast will not be made available to the public. Hope springs eternal, however, and I think it's safe to say some kind of regular podcast forum on Indiana politics will be running soon. Stay tuned.

The first, and most obvious, risk is a trade-off: the potential for higher local phone rates in exchange for encouraging inexpensive, widely available broadband service by means of franchise consolidation and tax incentives. Whether this risk pays off requires that the local phone market is not so artificially price-depressed and undercompetitive that it won't be set off by business and consumer advantages provided by widely available (and cheaper) broadband. Telecom companies are permitted to raise their local rates $1 per year until complete deregulation in 2009 as long as they have 50% broadband saturation, virtually guaranteeing some rate increases. A certain amount of trust in the market is necessary to accept that this will pay off, but there is evidence that franchise consolidation will result in high-tech investment, which Texas saw to the tune of $800 million in the months following its 2005 passage of a similar bill.

Also included is the gamble that private investment will come quickly
enough to cover up the fact that local governments will lose most power to control their high-speed destinies. As a result of centralizing video franchising power in the state, telecom companies will have one regulatory body to petition, which should lead to ease of entry into the Indiana market. In exchange, municipalities lose their cable franchise boards and sacrifice the ability (in all but extreme situations) to build their own networks. Sen. Hershman argues that local governments are poor performers on public works that become obsolete quickly. Broadband is not a new fire truck, and if Tell City passes a 30-year bond to build a network that is obsolete in five years, it will be stuck paying for an outmoded system. Private investment doesn't usually get stuck like that, as AT&T has a duty to its stockholders to stay competitive. Also, the tax and rate incentives built into the bill give providers reason to build networks quickly and comprehensively, so localities shouldn't be overlooked to the point that they will need to build their own networks. Accepting this last fact again requires people to trust in a broader marketplace living up to its end of the bargain, which some people certainly won't do, regardless of the evidence. Reform doesn't need unanimous support, however; it just needs enough to pass the Assembly before February 2.

Dissenters should strive to reconcile their concerns, because if Texas is any indication, the impact of this bill will be felt immediately in Indiana, and the stakes are high. Congress is also working on telecom reform, and if Indiana drags its feet on this issue, it runs the risk of the federal government acting, which will sap any competitive advantage that would accrue as a result of quick action.

This is a thick, complex bill, but the promised payoff is significant - Indiana moving to the top tier of states and countries able to do business from border to border and further at the click of a mouse. Some of the choices made by this bill take risks, for example, that private companies will view Indiana as a profitable market and saturate it before municipalities try to build their own networks, but if there is ever a movement on which we should take risks, it is that video franchising and telecom deregulation will allow Indiana to get in on the high-speed economy. Texas serves as an example of what the market can do with this bill; local phone rates went up in some locales, but cable bills in some cities dropped 25% and SBC promised $800 million in high-speed infrastructure development.

Another year without this bill is a bigger risk than trusting the market, as other states and countries continue to put distance between themselves and Indiana, and our businesses and consumers are drawn to more wired locations.

Posted by Adam Packer at January 22, 2006 03:05 PM

Comments

Broadband is not a new fire truck, and if Tell City passes a 30-year bond to build a network that is obsolete in five years, it will be stuck paying for an outmoded system. Private investment doesn't usually get stuck like that, as AT&T has a duty to its stockholders to stay competitive.

I'm a pretty conservative guy, but the waters get muddied very quickly when you start delving into the ugly monopolistic backroom politics of telecom. I'm very dubious of your statement above, for two reaons.

First of all, just because AT&T has a responsibility to its stockholders doesn't mean it has a responsibility to Tell City. AT&T would leave every two-bit cow town languishing in the tumbleweeds of telecom past if it weren't for some form of government intervention. How could it possibly be profitable to run a cable/fiber/microwave network to a random burg with 5 farmers so they can surf the 'net?

This is always the issue that telecom has had to grapple with, as all monopolistic utilities. How do you garuntee universal service and run a business at the same time? My answer is, probably not well in either case.

My only point is that mortgaging Tell City's future on visions of bags with dollar signs on the side is a very serious endeavour. In exactly the same way that people can complain about how land is allocated, the rights for building networks ought to be questioned.

AT&T, verizon and friends are all out to make a profit, and the first step to secure that is to make all the little guys roll over to their visions of the future.

It certainly seems to me that it is very much in the citizen's best interest to run thier own physical plant and trade for good access at the entry point. This seperates the profit interest from running the local plant from the inter-network connectivity. It might be difficult to run efficiently, but it would be interesting to see someone give it a shot before they sell out to Big Telecom.

Posted by: Anonymous at January 22, 2006 05:55 PM | permalink

By the way my second point from the first paragraph above was a question about AT&T's ability to run a network in the first place.

Is it not the case that the telecom companies have all been pretty much riding on the backs of those who installed the current infrastructre in place for awhile? Aside from Verizon fiber roll-outs in some places, the phone company hasn't exactly been a place of innovation (aside from the old Bell Labs days, days long gone and never to be back again).

I just wish the end-user could choose between many different companies without having them each run a line to his house. Some situations could be almost as good, like if some (relatively) trusted 3rd party ran the lines and provided plant service, while the end-user traded between major access companies.

Posted by: Anonymous at January 22, 2006 06:00 PM | permalink

Just want to remind everyone that AT&T was just bought out by SBC Communications (formerly Pacific Bell, one of the "baby bells"). Just to make it confusing, however, SBC then changed its name to "AT&T".

Posted by: wahoofive at January 23, 2006 06:28 PM | permalink

AT&T is probably the more marketable name.

Posted by: Adam Packer at January 23, 2006 06:55 PM | permalink

grrr. the website didn't post my response to Anon. I'll summarize:

multiple companies CAN bring their products to the user without overbuilding. the 1996 telecom act requires reasonable leasing of existing infrastructure. Cable companies usually don't do it, though, which is one of the ills this bill seeks to remedy. The Fort Wayne mayor said something like "if we get a duopoly instead of Comcast's monopoly, the bill will have done its job."

Local governments have tried to build their own networks, with a significant failure rate, for the reason that they can't keep up. This isn't a water treatment plant that just needs basic upkeep every year; high-tech infrastructure is too high-maintenance for local governments to be trusted with it, unless the big boys can't or won't enter the market, in which case Tell City has no choice. In this instance, they'd still be able to make their own network under the bill. I agree that it's a tight question, and some local governments may be able to do it even with the passage of this bill, but the hope is that private investment will come so quickly as to make public high-speed unnecessary.

Posted by: Adam Packer at January 23, 2006 07:13 PM | permalink

Since I work for a telecom company, take my comments with the apporpriate grains (or lick) of salt.

"Is it not the case that the telecom companies have all been pretty much riding on the backs of those who installed the current infrastructre in place for awhile?"

Yes and no. While POTS has not changed much in the last mile to consumers, there have been massive upgrades to the systems one step back from the last mile to offer DSL and other services. That being said cable companies haven't changed anything about their last mile, but their backend systems have been upgraded to offer high speed internet and interactive cable services.

Neither group has much interest in rolling out fiber or upgraded networks because current regulations force them to sublease their networks at rates they do not directly control, thus making them the 3rd party referenced above.

Verizon is taking a gamble in rolling out its all-fiber network thinking the laws will change before their network is out of the beta stage. SBC/AT&T has plans to roll fiber out to the node (the boxes in your back yards) first and then all fiber as the market demands (like current DSL penetration)

Posted by: Foltz at January 24, 2006 11:50 AM | permalink

"current regulations force them to sublease their networks at rates they do not directly control, thus making them the 3rd party referenced above."

Yeah, I realize this is the current situation, and no one likes it. It is really a bad idea in every way, but there is not a reasonable alterative out there right now.

From rumblings in the Congress it sounds like "telecom act of 2006" is fomenting discord already. We will see if it significantly changes anything. Given the Republicans authored the 96 act, I'm not crossing my fingers too tightly.

This Verizon (and others) fiber roll-out should have started 10 years ago, and the next act of Congress will determine its fate. Hopefully the US won't fall behind other major nations in the distribution of major telecom infrastructure.

I wish there was more of the same attitude towards broadband as there is towards education. "Throw money at the problem, don't look at the results".

The current attitude towards all things telecom is "how can Big Telecom profit without screwing the little guy too much?"

Posted by: Dave S. at January 24, 2006 11:58 PM | permalink

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