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December 21, 2005
The Calculus of Civilian Deaths
In absolute terms, every civilian death is a tragedy, and so the roughly 30,000 Iraqi dead are lamentable. But collateral damage must also be examined in relative terms. The question is, relative to what?
Unfortunately, some people will try to compare the 30,000 Iraqi civilians to the 3,000 victims of 9/11 or the 2,000+ military deaths, which tends to show that we are making a mess of things. The more relevant comparison is, what would the fate of the Iraqis have been had we not invaded? This graphic from the New York Times (via Instapundit) shows that it could have been much worse: during the internal violence of 1988-1991, 180,000 Iraqis were killed. Seemingly, the present civilian death rate is avoiding 35,000 deaths every year.
Whether one finds this argument to be persuasive depends on the probability one assigns to the scenario that Saddam would have been killing his people at the same rate as during the violent period. The most optimistic of the doves would probably rate this as pretty low; their preferred foreign policies of containment, arms inspectors, lifting sanctions, etc., could have brought peace and prosperity to Iraq without the 30,000 civilian deaths. The most pessimistic of hawks would probably rate this as pretty high, and the total civilian deaths from 2003-whenever would be higher under Saddam than whatever number we're likely to hit once the insurgency is put down.
But such comparisons fail because wars are not justified purely by body count. Unfortunately, we don't have a common unit of comparison for things like freedom, the march of democracy, regional stability, or defeating global terrorism. It would also be telling whether one considered the expenditure of Iraqi civilians' lives on these ideals to be noble or vile.
Posted by Zach Wendling at December 21, 2005 12:17 PM
Good article, Zach. I tend to lean more toward the opinion that as costly as the war might be in lives and other costs, the long-term risks of not fighting outweighs the immediate cost. And even though this might be a little off-topic, just because some people say that we can't win, so why put American and other lives at risk is bad policy in war, business or a lot of other things. If we didn't do things because we couldn't guarantee we would win, we wouldn't do very much.
Anyway, good article. :)
Posted by: lawyerchik1 at December 21, 2005 01:31 PM | permalink
I'm surprised that the toll in Afghanistan is half of that in Iraq. The Iraq conflict seems to me to have been more than twice as violent as Afghanistan (even when taking the relative durations of the conflicts into consideration).
Posted by: Eric Seymour at December 21, 2005 02:22 PM | permalink
With regard to Iraq, what percentage of those claimed 30,000 deaths are victims of islamist violence, and does anyone actually expect that woud decrease if we left tomorrow? And what percentage of those 30,000 "civilians" were armed? Perhaps I am getting too cynical in my old age, but I can't help believing that the New York Times would list the 19 hijackers of 911 as "civilians" - after all, they weren't in anybody's military.
Posted by: The Waffling Anglican at December 21, 2005 04:39 PM | permalink
It is worth noting that until 1990 when Iraq invaded Kuwait, we not only were little concerned with civilian deaths at Saddam's hands, we contributed to them by being indifferent to how he maintained order within Iraq. We raised no great protests about his use of torture and facilitated the import of chemicals and biological agents that Saddam used rather indiscriminately. The Reagan and first Bush administrations continued to back Saddam even after he had attacked civilians with chemical weapons. In fact, after the Reagan administration's rather mild rebuke of Iraq for gassing the Kurds, U.S. assistance to Saddam was increased.
In 1982, the Reagan administration discounted the idea that Saddam had chemical weapons at all. Intelligence, however, had already shown that Saddam began developing them in the 1970's. It is doubtful the Reagan administration was unaware of that fact, but intentionally misrepresented Saddam as a rather benign figure.
Also, a study published by the Bloomberg School of Health of John Hopkins University in 2004 claimed that 100,000 more civilians may have died as a result of the invasion compared to the number who would have died otherwise. So, there is not agreement on civilian deaths before and after.
U.S. official policy discourages the counting of civilian deaths. In the previous gulf war, the first Bush administration even attempted to fire a Census Bureau worker for publishing details of civilian deaths.
Posted by: Joel Thomas at December 22, 2005 12:42 AM | permalink
In the past, war was an important way of controlling the human popluation in a given area.
Given this is the case, should we not be impressed that modern wars do not have tens of millions of dead?
Posted by: Dave S. at December 25, 2005 12:19 AM | permalink
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