There's a huge difference in probability between an asteroid impact and a flu pandemic.

While this bug has the potential to be the next pandemic flu, there's always the chance it won't be. But the reality is...at some point in the next few decades, there almost certainly will be a pandemic flu. It will be strong enough to kill tens of millions worldwide. We know this, because it has happened dozens of times before.

When one does hit, the expense now of at least trying to improve and modernize the vaccine industry, which has been using the same techniques for decades, could potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives and save tens of billions of dollars later.

And even if, as you say, the mortality rate drops dramatically...that's not the point with an influenza virus. With the flu, the real point is that it's amazingly easy to transmit. So even if the mortality rate drops dramatically...it turns out that if it starts spreading easily between humans, it's basically not going to stop. So even if 5% die, if it infects a few hundred million people...that's a very big number of casualties.

Some portion of this money probably will just be a giveaway to the private sector, but in some cases, that's still justified. Here is one of those cases. The government just cannot manufacture and stockpile vaccines for everything that happens..at some point, we have to buy them from someone. And we'll be in a lot better shape if those funds get used now to modernize the industry and put away supplies for a rainy day.

Without minimizing the real threat from a disease for which there is no known or available cure, doesn't it seem that the administration is between a rock and a hard place when it comes to disaster preparedness?

If there is a pandemic, it won't matter how much was allocated - it will only matter how many people died, and no matter what funds were provided or actions were taken, there will be outrage and finger-pointing and blame shovelled to the White House steps.

If there isn't a pandemic, the outcry will be on the billions of dollars diverted to preparing for something that hadn't happened, instead of spending it where it could do some "real" good - again, pick your poison.

No matter what happens, flu or no flu, asteroid or no asteroid, there will, in addition, be hue and cry over the spending in Iraq or elsewhere "while American citizens were in danger from [insert disaster du jour here]."

Geez! No wonder the political candidate pool is so small - no rational, decent person would deliberately choose to take a job that he (or she) was virtually guaranteed of screwing up, no matter what he (or she) did!!

So, who are you guys looking at for 2008??? :)

At some point, you don't run for president if you're not willing to make decisions that some people are going to disagree with, as long as they're the right decisions. How exactly the money will be spent is still a question...but this is one place where the preparedness is an absolute necessity.

There's lots of examples of this, and you don't run for office if you're not prepared to make these sorts of decisions. Like should our nation cut taxes further or should we prepare for a disease that could kill tens of thousands of americans or more? Should we cut taxes further or spend a few tens of millions of dollars to put a rudimentary tsunami warning system in the Atlantic, just in case an island in the Azores collapses sending a tsunami to the U.S. that would bury our entire east coast?

Furthermore, every single year this nation needs flu vaccine. If some genuine research dollars were spent on perfecting newer, cheaper, and quicker techniques for manufacturing the vaccine, then maybe we can avoid the mess of a few years ago when one of the suppliers failed to bring their product to market

When one does hit, the expense now of at least trying to improve and modernize the vaccine industry, which has been using the same techniques for decades, could potentially save hundreds of thousands of lives and save tens of billions of dollars later.

I agree completely, which is why I think rational, long-term approaches make sense even though the avian flu scare has been overblown in the media.

From what I know, the main reason the vaccine industry hasn't modernized on its own is that it is a low-profit, high-liability business. Companies barely want to produce vaccines any more, let alone invest in developing new technology.

Wait a second...Eric...are you telling me that there's an example of a case where the private sector is failing to fulfill a public need in a quality manner? Surely you jest, because in that case, government intervention would be required in order to right the wrongs of the private sector, and we can't have that can we?

(Please note...sarcastic voices do not transmit well through text. Please no one hurt me.)

Tyler Cowen has been making the argument for some time now that if ever there were a use for government money, it might be on figuring out what to do in case of a 'killer asteroid'.

There's no reason (financially) for the private sector to spend money on such a thing, and surely it'd be more useful than studying ketchup viscosity or whatever it is they're paying for these days.

(Not to hijack the thread into a discussion of asteroids or anything - but I thought it was pertinent.)

Balta,

I think the main reason the private sector is struggling to meet the need for *ordinary* flu vaccines is that we have an out-of-control liability lawsuit situation in this country. Part of that problem is that so many liability cases hinge on very technical issues, and the average juror is not capable of analyzing them, so they're highly susceptible to emotional arguments made on behalf of the plaintiff.

I've heard that in the UK, medical malpractice cases are handled by a jury of physicians, and that "expert witnesses" who are found to give faulty information can lose their professional licences. I favor similar reforms in the US.

In the case of a pandemic, of course, there's always going to be a need for government action. A pandemic--like a war or a natural disaster--is something only a government has the resources and authority to effectively handle.