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November 25, 2005
"The Deadweight Loss of Christmas"
Today marks the official beginning of the holiday shopping season, and I am at home blissfully removed from the retail madness. This flurry in the marketplace no doubt delights most capitalists, but I fall into the camp that says it is lamentable. One month from today, the irrational decisions of millions of shoppers will culminate in a tremendous deadweight loss for our economy.
How can exchanging gifts destroy value? A typical illustration goes like this: Your Great Aunt spends $20 to purchase a Widget for you as a Christmas gift. You, on the other hand, would only be willing to pay $15 for that same Widget. Therefore, that extra $5 is lost value. Ah well, a lost $5 on one gift from one relative is no big deal. But what about the aggregate of all those exchanged gifts on Christmas?
Data on these losses were first published by Prof. Joel Waldfogel, then of Yale University, in "The Deadweight Loss of Christmas" (American Economic Review, December 1993, vol 83, no 5.). Waldfogel found that recipients valued their gifts an estimated ten percent to one-third less than what the givers had paid for them. This represents a tremendous amount of destroyed value, at least $4 billion in 2003. I would further add that there is a destruction of value in the time and resources expended to return or sell unwanted gifts, often for merchandise vouchers or prices even further below the sale price. And Waldfogel stipulates that the deadweight loss extends to "Hanukkah and other holidays with gift-giving rituals." The potential loss to our economy from all such rituals must be huge.
This kind of thinking leads to obvious absurdity:
It follows from this insight that, if people must persist with gift giving, they should at least minimise the loss by giving money rather than items in kind.
Trouble is, were families to assemble on Christmas morning for an equal exchange of $50 cheques, the pointlessness of the exercise would quickly become apparent.
Of course, such exchanges aren't always equal, much to the delight of the young. And as a slightly-less equivalent of cash, gift certificates, or more likely nowadays gift cards, give a bit of a hedge to the impropriety of monetary gifts.
Radley Balko gives an excellent illustration of how gift cards relate to the deadweight loss of Christmas (as a fisking of
Daniel Gross). I do think Gross is getting toward something on the third point. I have gift cards (and merchandise vouchers) to stores where I have very little chance of finding anything I like. In order to maximize utility, we must make the gift card ever more impersonal by making it more generally applicable, purchased from the mall, Amazon, or WalMart.
Again, gift cards can also also hold a deadweight loss. Let's say I have a $20 gift card to the "CNBC Giftshop," wherein the only thing I kind of like is a "Kudlow & Company Executive Decision-Maker," an object for which I would pay, oh, about a dollar. Since the gift card is nonfungible, $19 get destroyed. What's more, gift certificates generally sell for about 80% of their face value on eBay.
Some of our readers might find such economic criticisms distasteful, and other economists agree more-or-less, because such valuations explicitly ignore the sentimental value of gifts, which may reduce, eliminate, or reverse the deadweight loss. I am unconvinced by this argument. Deadweight losses are highest where the giver is most ignorant of the preferences of the recipient, for example, an elderly member of the recipient's extended family. We typically aren't close with that Great Aunt, whom we haven't seen in over a decade, and therefore aren't likely to put any significant sentimental value on the white elephant she sent this year. The thought doesn't count because there's not much thought (to be) given. On the other hand, I would argue that an inefficient gift from a close friend or relative would be disappointing or irritating: someone who knows you well has apparently been inconsiderate. (Sentiment may, therefore, devalue monetary gifts, perhaps the least considerate gifts of all.)
Yet economists persist in trying to determine why homo economicus engages in seemingly irrational, i.e., value-destroying, gift-giving. The Austrian School says that gift-giving absolutely cannot result in a deadweight loss -- or else people wouldn't be doing it. Here are some hypotheses culled from three articles (here, here, and here) on why they do:
- "First, recipients may not know their own preferences very well. Some of the best gifts, after all, are the unexpected items that you would never have thought of buying, but which turn out to be especially well picked. And preferences can change. So by giving a jazz CD, for example, the giver may be encouraging the recipient to enjoy something that was shunned before." There is some empirical evidence that unexpected gifts are more highly valued.
- "Second, the giver may have access to items--because of travel or an employee discount, for example--that the recipient does not know existed, cannot buy, or can only buy at a higher price." In other words, "[G]ift giving makes sense in cases where the giver's knowledge of where to find something the recipient wants is greater than the recipient's own knowledge. Or if the giver is in a position to get it cheaper. So the rule is that the giver gives a gift only when her 'search costs' for the gift are lower than those of the recipient."
- "[B]ecause of the discipline many people impose on themselves to ensure they stay within their budgets and make ends meet, many of us have trouble allowing ourselves to indulge in the odd luxury purchase. So we're pleased when friends and rellos brighten our lives by giving us little luxuries . . ." "If someone else buys them . . . they can be enjoyed guilt-free. This might explain the high volume of chocolate that changes hands over the holidays."
- "One possibility is that gifts may procure a source of insurance for the giver. Parents, for instance, may give gifts to their children in the hope the children will care for them in their old age. Adult children may give gifts to their elderly parents in the hope of being remembered at that last great gift giving with lawyers present. Then, money will do fine."
- "Another line of inquiry is that gifts, particularly inefficient ones, serve as costly signals of the giver's intention to invest in a future relationship."
- "Or maybe gifts are exchanged to break down mistrust, permit co-operation and build relationships. But such a model doesn't explain why people continue to give gifts in well-established relationships where there is little mistrust and dumb signalling isn't necessary."
- "Other economists think that people might not give cash gifts precisely because cash is so valuable. You don't want people to be your friend just to get your money, yet you want to show them that you care so you give less valuable non-monetary gifts."
- "Some people might give things rather than money because they enjoy shopping. Many Americans like to shop but have run out of relatively inexpensive goods to buy for themselves so they use Christmas as an excuse to shop for others."
Many of these seem silly and marginal. The first hypothesis seems the most rewarding, but naturally, the risk of an inefficient gift seems highest here precisely because the giver is ignoring evident preferences in the recipient. The second and third hypotheses don't seem to be useful for refuting the deadweight loss argument because it would only seem to work when the giver is reasonably assured of the recipient's preferences. The fourth, fifth, and sixth hypotheses seem too marginal to be significant, if they happen in real life at all. The seventh holds some promise, though it leads to the question of why our society would view a monetary gift as buying friendship. The eighth hypotheses strikes to the heart of the Austrian criticism: the deadweight loss is made up for by the enjoyment of the giver, which may include the enjoyment of shopping (I'll note here that "women give Christmas gifts to more people than men (on average, 12.5 versus eight), start shopping for gifts earlier than men, devote more time to selecting the appropriate gift (2.4 hours per recipient versus 2.1 hours) and are more successful in finding a desirable gift (10 per cent of women's gifts were returned to the shop versus 16 per cent of men's)"). This is, of course, little consolation to the recipients of inefficient gifts. Overall, I'm tempted to believe that some flows of wealth don't have an ultimately rational explanation.
Posted by Zach Wendling at November 25, 2005 11:54 AM
I'd say that these critiques by and large ignore the value to the giver as well as the bond created between giver and recipient.
Posted by: Doug at November 25, 2005 01:21 PM | permalink
Posted by: Joshua Claybourn at November 25, 2005 01:50 PM | permalink
Assuming the receiver of the gift actually went into the market place and purchased the gift at a reduced price. I would argue that it does help the economy since it increases output, I never would have purchased the new Newt Gingrich book my mom bought for me even if it was on sale for $5.00.
Posted by: Mike Heath at November 25, 2005 05:27 PM | permalink
Mike, you're forgetting the key point--that if your mom had spent the fifteen dollars on something that you (or she) had chosen, society as a whole (summing across individual preferences) would be better off.
Posted by: Paul at November 25, 2005 08:49 PM | permalink
I think that there is an enormous deadweight loss in all the money that is spent on religious ritual in the United States. People just don't get any economic value out of it.
(Actually, I think the deadweight loss from gifts is illusory for exactly the same reason that the above appears absurd -- When we exchange gifts, we receive a happiness that exceeds the retail value of the gift, had it been purchased ourselves. Gifts turn money into satisfaction more efficiently than personal shopping sprees can do, making the transaction a sound one overall. Exactly the same is true of spending money on otherwise nonproductive religious rituals.)
Posted by: Jason Kuznicki at November 26, 2005 10:00 AM | permalink
While I think Christmas gifts are mostly a waste, in the grand scheme of things, 4 billion dollars is small potatoes.
In reality, it is a privitized welfare policy for retailers. Perhaps we Americans just really want to keep those kitchy crap stores in business so badly we are willing to sink bucks into them.
Hmm. Maybe I need to get me one of those Christmas mall stores...
Posted by: Dave S. at November 26, 2005 11:16 PM | permalink
I'm not aware that I've ever returned any Christmas gift that anyone has ever given me. I don't ponder whether they might have bought it on sale. I don't consider whether they might be giving me something they got two of the year before. My focus is so much on approaching Christmas in a spirit of hope and community that I really don't care about the rest.
Further, if someone takes the time to write a substantive and encouraging note on a Christmas card, I cherish that card as a gift the same as I would something someone paid $300 for. Likely more.
I do fear that gift-giving and partying have overtaken the spiritual side of the holiday, but no one is forced to get on or stay on that treadmill.
Posted by: Joel Thomas at November 27, 2005 02:11 AM | permalink
And Zach, you seem to forget that the money just doesn't disappear into the ether. Jobs are created (or kept), which in turn leads to more purchases fueling more job growth. One may not be a fan of Christmas and its propensity for materialism, but the concept of Christmas spending as a deadweight loss of any kind is, to paraphrase Henry Hazlett, to simply look at what can be seen and not at the impacts that can't be seen, which means it's short-sighted.
Posted by: RiShawn Biddle at November 29, 2005 01:43 PM | permalink
In response to comments:
1. Yes, Paul has it right.
2. Religious rituals are essentially a purchase by the devout for whatever intangible good feelings such donations produce. That is, it is a gift one buys for oneself--a further i.e., it is akin to a normal market exchange. When one spends money on religious rituals, one presumably has a good handle on one's own preferences and the value attached to them.
This is what makes this a flawed analogy, because of the mismatch of perceived and actual preferences between givers and recipients.
3. The analogy really wasn't necessary to introduce the main objection: that there are intangible benefits not accounted for in simple monetary values.
Essentially, the value of the sentimental properties of a gift may compensate for Waldfogel's measurements. As the original post and linked articles show, this may be an empirical question that depends heavily upon the construction of the survey instrument.
Maybe I'm simply an unsentimental person, or maybe I've too often been in inefficient gift-exchanges, but I'm inclined to think that the sentimental value is not sufficient to compensate for the deadweight loss.
4. Yes, it certainly seems petty to worry over the value of something that someone is giving you because they love you, and even more crass to discount the sentimental value. But as long as gift giving remains a substantial component of our economy, I think it is important to look at these issues. They don't call it the dismal science for nothing.
5. And as for it accounting for a substantial part of our economy, and the further impacts that can't be seen, it also behooves us to ask the ever-pertinent economics question, "Compared to what?"
Although I don't explicitly say so, one could gather from my post that abolishing ritualistic gift-giving would avoid the deadweight loss. I'm not ready to take that plunge, precisely because I don't know what the effect of such a move would have. Maybe it would be good, maybe bad. I doubt that if gift-giving ended tomorrow, though, people would take the money they had budgeted for Christmas and stuff it under their mattresses.
A second alternative would be that gifts would be exchanged much more efficiently--how, I don't know. I do think that our current scheme also has unseen impacts. Namely, consumers send the market inaccurate signals about aggregate preferrences. So entrepreneurs will make a whole bunch more Executive Decision Makers instead of something people will actually like to receive. This seems to confirm the theory that Christmas supports kitchy crap.
Posted by: Zach Wendling at November 29, 2005 06:53 PM | permalink
The problem is that it's difficult to measure satisfaction, which is key in all of commerce. The best possible way is to consider that if gift-giving didn't lead to satisfaction for any of the participants, it would have dropped off long ago. After all, if using horses-and-buggies for transportation was satisfactory, then rush-hour traffic would consist of horse-drawn carriages. Instead the streets are filled with cars. The reason: Cars provide its users far more satisfaction, including more mileage at a lower cost. Besides cars, unlike horses, don't need rest or get sick.
The nature of economics is such that few products, services or activities that don't provide the optimal level of satisfaction to everyone involved, survive for very long. Under such considerations, gift-giving just doesn't seem like a 'deadweight loss.'
Posted by: RiShawn Biddle at November 30, 2005 11:49 AM | permalink
The problem is that we know there are inefficient, unsatisfactory gifts. And not just from personal experience. Millions, maybe billions, of dollars worth of gifts get returned, exchanged, sold, re-gifted, thrown away, or fall into disuse every year.
Of course, we also know that there are also efficient, satisfactory gifts.
The question is, then, why do the former persist along with the latter?
Posted by: Zach Wendling at November 30, 2005 01:42 PM | permalink
And then there's the giant sucking sound of the money never collected by creditors for items purchased on credit by people who overextended themselves during the retail buying frenzy.....
Posted by: lawyerchik1 at December 1, 2005 03:28 PM | permalink
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