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October 26, 2005

Why I'm (More) Right on Miers

Hewitt thinks that failing to back the president on Miers will hurt congressional Republicans next year and the party in 2008. I think the opposite is more plausible, and that Republicans in the legislature will increasingly try to distance themselves from a White House that is not tremendously popular, with even its base showing diminishing enthusiasm.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, Hewitt thinks the Republican Party is the proper subject of analysis. But electorally, the Republican Party doesn't exist.

Instead, there are hundreds of Republican candidates who have to win election on their own (as opposed to the party-list of other democracies, like Italy and Israel, or the party-centric elections of the Westminster model). And given the choice between jeopardizing their own jobs or breaking with the president, I can't think of any senators who would not choose the latter unless the president was acting out of some deeply-held principle the senator happened to share.

And that, to put it lightly, doesn't seem to be the case: The whole Miers nomination seems like a joke, the consequence of a faulty vetting process rather than the product of sophisticated calculation. And if senators are motivated by pure self-interest, going against the president's wishes on this matter is a no-brainer.

Incidentally, Hewitt is wrong to say that the absence of an anti-Miers champion in the Senate proves Republican support. It is likely that the Republican majority will try to soft-pedal this until Miers, voluntarily or not, withdraws her own nomination after suffering a thousand cuts. Similarly, the lack of a grassroots campaign to defeat Miers is not conclusive evidence that Republicans really, really like her; if they did, they'd be organizing under the leadership of the activist core of the conservative movement. But it is precisely the demoralization of those activists--not just commentators--that has resulted in the relative inactivity of the base.

For empirical support for my position, see this excellent Wall Street Journal position, which fully supports my earlier diagnosis of the Miers case.

Posted by Paul Musgrave at October 26, 2005 03:52 PM

Comments

I agree with most of the analysis here, but I'm not sure what to say about one part of it: "But electorally, the Republican Party doesn't exist." I understand the sense in which that's true, for the reasons that you have offered. But given the influence of party ID on many voters' behavior, isn't there some sense in which the parties do exist electorally? What's bad for the image of either party on the whole, is at least somewhat bad for the electoral prospects of its individual members -- it's one more burden they have to bear, in crossing the electoral finish line. Is there not some way to include the party aspect in the analysis, even for systems like ours?

Posted by: philosopher at October 26, 2005 05:20 PM | permalink

This is a valid point, but it would be more valid if it weren't the case that the two parties, combined, account for only 60-70% of likely voters. There is a third party out there already, and it's called "independent."

The second half of your analysis is interesting as well, but the fact that Clinton was able to pull off triangulation so well argues that the identification isn't total. (And other factors, also unaddressed here, enter into the analysis as well: Safe seats, for instance, may allow incumbents more autonomy from their party than competitive districts.)

Posted by: Paul at October 26, 2005 05:25 PM | permalink

I am only surprised, not by the quality of your posts (which is excellent as always), but with how you have chosen -- for two posts running -- to take Hewitt seriously.

Posted by: Jason Kuznicki at October 26, 2005 10:42 PM | permalink

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