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February 14, 2005
Defying Death
Prof. Reynolds writes, "I really do think that aging is a disease, and I wish we could do something about it. . . Yeah, it's 'natural' -- but so is smallpox." Coincidentally, the AP is carrying a story today on Ray Kurzweil, an acclaimed inventor who predicts in his new book that humanity will achieve immortality in less than 20 years. "All the genes we have, the 20,000 to 30,000 genes, are little software programs," he says.
Kurzweil writes that humanity is on the verge of controlling how genes express themselves and ultimately changing the genes. With such technology, humanity could block disease-causing genes and introduce new ones that would slow or stop the aging process.
The "Third Bridge" is the nanotechnology and artificial intelligence revolution, which Kurzweil predicts will deliver the nanobots that work like repaving crews in our bloodstreams and brains. These intelligent machines will destroy disease, rebuild organs and obliterate known limits on human intelligence, he believes.
Some may doubt him, and justifiably so, but it was Kurtweil who in 1990 predicted the development of a worldwide computer network and of a computer that could beat a chess champion. In the hopes of living to see his prediction come true, Kurtweil "ingests 250 supplements, eight to 10 glasses of alkaline water and 10 cups of green tea" each day.
Posted by Joshua Claybourn at February 14, 2005 11:21 AM
i know more than a few bio folks who are working in this area under the exact same pretense. i try not to discount anything that sounds too much like sci-fi, as the universe continues to impress and suprise. on the other hand, i find the idea of it happening before i reach the ripe old age of 50 far fetched :) (though very appealing!)
Posted by: jason at February 14, 2005 11:31 AM | permalink
I wonder if life can be so extended if the pressure to eliminate the mentally ill and those with severe birth defects will only increase. Perhaps life extension will be divided so clearly along class or wealth lines that we'll develop a caste system. I'm not convinced that life extension will encourage us to value life more but to regtard it even more selfishly and less humbly.
Posted by: Joel Thomas at February 14, 2005 11:49 AM | permalink
but it was Kurtweil who in 1990 predicted the development of a worldwide computer network and of a computer that could beat a chess champion
And I predicted in the 4th quarter that New Jersey would beat Denver.
/not impressed
Posted by: Zach Wendling at February 14, 2005 11:51 AM | permalink
Am I the only 1 who sees the name "Kurzweil" and immediately thinks of the character of the same name in the X Files movie?
Posted by: Balta at February 14, 2005 12:05 PM | permalink
Actually, I see "Kurtweil" and think of, well, Kurt Weill.
Posted by: Zach Wendling at February 14, 2005 12:07 PM | permalink
Excellent, Zach.
Well, Glenn certainly prides himself at expressing the obvious and pronouncing "revelations" as if they really meant something other than that he just now "got it", well after everyone else.
Sigh, hasn't changed a bit from high school...............
Posted by: Sky-Ho at February 14, 2005 12:12 PM | permalink
Having finally come to accept myself as I am, I now find that someone wants to offer me the chance to become something new? Sadly, I find I am too afraid of death (or too attached to life) to decline. It is more human, I suppose, to transgress limits than to define oneself by them.
Posted by: A Steve at February 14, 2005 12:22 PM | permalink
I wonder if life can be so extended if the pressure to eliminate the mentally ill and those with severe birth defects will only increase.
Actually, if we ever have the capability to extend life indefinitely, I would expect that curing mental illness or birth defects would be a cakewalk.
The #1 impediment to extending the human lifespan is cancer. Even in a world free of pollution, ozone layer holes, etc., natural radiation and chemical agents cause a buildup of genetic damage. Correcting the damage in trillions of cells is an extremely high order.
Posted by: Eric Seymour at February 14, 2005 04:30 PM | permalink
Oh, and I do share Joel's concern about the impact on society of such technology. It's easy to imagine society evolving into two castes--"immortals" who have built up immense wealth and power and the "mortals" who are basically the drones of society. Would make for some interesting sci-fi.
Posted by: Eric Seymour at February 14, 2005 04:32 PM | permalink
"Correcting the damage in trillions of cells is an extremely high order."
Yeah, but in theory you can just build self-replicating nanorobots and set them loose to repair your body one cell at a time. Of course, this is like saying "In theory, you can just travel to Alpha Centauri."
Has anyone else noticed that, since the 1950's, true artificial intelligence has always been twenty years away?
Posted by: Tierney at February 14, 2005 05:13 PM | permalink
The area of prolonged life has been covered extensively in sci-fi. There's a book called Genesis, by Poul Anderson, that addresses it beautifully. Life retreats after a while into a jaded and meaningless search for interest and curiosity as the brain becomes more and more overloaded and incapable of producing valid correlations due to it's limited storaged capacity. The search to overcome that lack of reason for existence in an overextended life then is transformed into a firm distinction between consciousness and physical life wherein consciousness is deemed completely superior. If consciousness is completely superior then why hold it in a body? If the consciousness can be housed in a non bio-chemical machine isn't it far more conducive to the exploration of consciousness (which has been given primacy over body) to do so. It's a really interesting read, and has dovetailed into my current interests in mind/body dualities and neo-Buddhist philosophy. Highly recommended.
Posted by: C M at February 14, 2005 06:20 PM | permalink
I make a distinction between tinkering with cells to eliminate disease and tinkering with cells to keep them perpetually alive. With the latter, I think we lose the sense that there is consequence for sin. If there isn't punishment for sin, why do we need God?
Eric,
As far as mental illness, I might agree with you as to such illness that is latent or "in-waiting." However, I think mental illness already manifest is a complicated mixture of heredity and environment that life extension would not have easy answers for. Those already mentally ill might still be considered expendable.
Posted by: Joel Thomas at February 14, 2005 06:31 PM | permalink
Joel, not having an easy answer isn't the same as not having any answer.
Immortality in science fiction was dealt with by Poul Anderson in another book, World Without Stars. In that one when there are too many memories for the brain to hold they are selectively wiped. This is a large part of a subplot in the book. The idea of classes divided by access to health care was the subject of the book Bladerunner by Dr. Alan E. Nourse. Yes, as I understand it they paid him for the rights to the title so they could use it for the movie. Then there are the stories by James Gunn, collected as The Immortals, one of which was adapted to the TV series The Immortal. The TV show, of course, never dealt with the medical dystopia that the later stories told of.
Posted by: Jim S at February 14, 2005 10:31 PM | permalink
The idea of classes divided by access to health care was the subject of the book Bladerunner by Dr. Alan E. Nourse. Yes, as I understand it they paid him for the rights to the title so they could use it for the movie.
Interesting, Jim. The actual plot of the movie was from a book called "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep," right?
Posted by: Eric Seymour at February 15, 2005 10:51 AM | permalink
Right. The first of several adaptations of stories by Philip K. Dick.
Posted by: Jim S at February 15, 2005 11:33 PM | permalink