Well, Jeeeebus.
Japan Times reports on the Japanese military’s plans to repel a Chinese invasion of Japan’s southernmost islands. I want to know two things: 1) Who decided to release this to the famously un-investigative Japanese media? and 2) What, exactly, will the United States be doing as all of this is going on, given that the U.S. base at Okinawa is relatively nearby?
Update: Welcome Instapunditeers. Please note also that Sino-Japanese relations have been even more tense than usual: A PRC submarine “accidentally” wandered into Japanese territorial waters last year, and just last week the state-run media had nasty things to say about Japan’s missile defense plans.
Update the Second: In comments, Eagle1 reminds me of the natural gas field dispute; I discussed this elsewhere back in October 2004. At that time, Japan charged that China, by allowing firms to drill in offshore natural gas fields Tokyo claimed as its own, was “invading” Japan’s economic exclusion zone. In addition, I should note also the long-running territorial dispute over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands; background here.
26 Responses to “Well, Jeeeebus.”
Dear God, this is true? I guess all those scholars arguing that China should be taken seriously weren’t lying.
This is quite disturbing. I’m not sure which is worse, the leak or the scenario.
It wouldn’t be a leak, in the sense of someone telling tales out of school. It would be a message.
silly questions,
1, Asian media is very reliable, it there was an instance which has made you think otherwise, get other it, no media organization is perfect all of the time,
2, who doesn’t know how the U.S. supports a one china policy, supports China’s economic manipulation, and all in all is doing more for China than it will ever do for Japan which sent peace-keeping troops to Iraq.
need I say more
You’re being ridiculous.
1. The Japanese press is famous for reporting what its official sources tell it to report; investigative journalism is not really a specialty there, especially when it comes to the government.
2. If you’re suggesting that the same Bush administration that’s pushing Taiwan to buy more arms than the Taiwanese legislature wants and that wants Japan to (formally) remilitarize would take China’s side in any likely Sino-Japanese dispute…well, you’re being ridiculous.
Plans to repel Chinese Invasion
The Japan Times reports:
The Defense Agency has prepared a plan to defend the southern remote islands off Kyushu and Okinawa from possible invasion amid rising security concerns about China, according to documents obtained Saturday by Kyodo News.
…
Japan announced a new defense policy back in December. The Chinese are very interested in the potential gas fields on the islands south of Japan (see here for details of a protest the Japanese lodged about a Chinese survey ship exploring the Japanese Exclusive Economic Zone (more info here). Info on Japan’s new defense strategy here and because the NYT link has gone to pay to see, here’s a link to a Japanese paper that has some information.
I hazard the guess that the announcements are being made (leaked?) by the Japanese government to warn off the Chinese. It might work.
If your suggesting that Bush is responsible for Japan to take a stronger military role, than that is rediculous. That is independent Japan.
And I would saw that congress is responsible for supporting Taiwan arming itself, not Bush.
Japan leads the way in unbiased, morally beneficial reporting when compared to that location of Asia. You, like many bloggers, suffer from unrealistic expectations.
I can’t believe your actually suggesting BUSH would side with Taiwan?
uh….The US helped rebuild Japan after we razed it during WWII. Rebuild it to become one of the world’s economic powers.
Let me guess – The US has become jealous and now wants Japan destroyed. China, the willing dupes that they are, will do the dirty work for us.
Yeah, yeah…..
IEA Chief said back in November:
“The East China Sea gas field at the heart of a diplomatic row between China and Japan is not worth fighting over as greater resources exist in Siberia, said the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Claude Mandil.”
cf. RigZone
Are things still heated over that issue?
i would say that the President would come to the aid of the Japanese or Taiwanese in any dispute. Hello, Taiwan has a democartically elected government. So does Japan. And if that doesn’t convince you, how about a carrier battle group or two holding exercises in the waters between mainland China and Taiwan. And yes, I know that there hasn’t been much news about that, but my cousin was stationed on the Kitty Hawk and they’ve held several exercises there. That serious enough for you Zed?
Btw…Those battle groups are the best protection Taiwan or Japan could have against an invasion. The the PRN would lead a short, but spectacular life if they ever tried it. And the Chinese know it.
Consider the North Korean nuclear arms talks, and this move by the Japanese makes sense.
Only China can persuade North Korea to give up its atomic weapons program, but China won’t apply the pressure unless it believes a nuked-up North Korea will drive Japan to build its own nuclear arsenal.
Until now, China has believed Japan is too pacifist to even consider its own nukes. Japan’s interest in protecting these islands might force the Chinese to recalculate Japan’s interest in a larger deterrence. Above anything, China does not want a nuclear Japan to worry about.
Coincidentally, yesterday, the North Korean government suddenly said it was willing to return to the anti-nuke talks, and might even be willing to treat the United States as a “friend.”
Either Kim Jong-Il is ronerier (”Team America” joke) than we thought, or the six-party negotiations actually might be headed for success.
zed…
ok, you seem to be an in region local, not sure which country though… likely an angry nationalist japanese… probably protest okinawa bases eh?
US strategy always involves supporting japan and taiwan (ok, not with jimmae carter in office.. but that was a while ago)
the US is using threats of nuked up japan and south korea to try to get china to clean up dprk… if they don’t, well.. we own the nieghbourhood…
china thinks that they can throw their weight around and that the region won’t ally and resents the US… Chinese maneouvering is making the rest of the region run hard into US arms…
we now are friendly or control all of china’s borders except for that of russia (we’re on fairly good terms with mongolia, which doesn’t like either of its neihgbours)
with the relief efforts in the Tsunami zone building and reinforcing relationships, China is now in a deep deep strategic problem.
It wants and believes that it deserves regional hegemony, and its designs scare the neighbours. US is a peaceful, non-acquisitive hegemon who just wants cheap TVs and shoes, while also having the absolute best toys to keep the neighbours honest if you’re on our good side. The two Iraq wars have been very very bad for the reputation of the more liberal arms vendors. Their gear sucks, and it can easily be swept away if the US takes an interest. The major possible vendors also have hostile intent, in that Russia and France are overly committed to china, so can’t be trusted as arms vendors in light of a possible conflict with china, and china has no credibility for obvious reasons.
Finally… US military doctrine and equipment has been designed for massively target rich environments (i.e. being massively outnumbered by lower quality gear very far away from home). PLAN has no ability to operate blue water (despite their desire) and the PLAAF can’t dodge prop-engined spy planes with their fighters… If the time comes, we’ll fight china and win, and thus bring about ze revolution.
Hmmm. Do you suppose Japan is threatening China with an arms race? That would freak out the Koreans, but that rarely seems to bother the Japanese government.
“What, exactly, will the United States be doing as all of this is going on, given that the U.S. base at Okinawa is relatively nearby?”
Actually the US has many bases on Okinawa.
There are several Army bases, a Marine base, Kadena Air Base with a tactical fighter wing and a Navy dock.
At least they were last time I was there.
More on the (Possible) Upcoming War
In the Agora: Well, Jeeeebus.
This is where Glenn Reynolds got the story in the first place. You’ll want to check out the comments.
HT: Paul Musgrave
We have lots of bases on Okinawa but the force there is hollow, particularly the USMC. No wonder Japan realizes it has to do the heavy lifting itself.
It’s questionable to say the bases on Okinawa are hollow. They won’t be if a deployment is ordered.
Yeah, the bases are basically pre-positioned facilities to be used to support a deployment, if one is necessary. Forces in place are there as a deterrent and to hold the current position until reinforcements arrive- the first of which would be submarines that deny any enemy the use of nearby waters, followed by carrier battle groups that deny any enemy air superiority, followed by USMC MEUs that land wherever they please (due to the subs and the carriers having driven off any enemy naval/air assets), and once the USMC has secured the beachhead, the regular Army deploys.
The US doesn’t have the forces to do that in okinawa *now*- it’s expensive, and there’s no need- but it can put them there if there is a need.
“Japan leads the way in unbiased, morally beneficial reporting when compared to that location of Asia.”
Yeah, if you compare the Japanese media to the North Koreans, Vietnamese, and Chinese they’re unbiased, but that ain’t saying much. They’re essentially tools for the government, and that is reflected in the manner in which they are positioned with police agencies, government departments, and high officials rather than acting as independent monitors of the aforementioned.
I suspect that all we’d have to do is make some noises about letting Japan re-arm itself–and China would back down immediately. After all, it’s not Imperial Japan we’d be recreating. It would be more like Great Britain East, which is fine with me.
Jason, three responses:
First, we’ve been making those noises for some time, and many of the noisome people were the same who thought Iraq was building nukes. I’d rather not take their advice right now.
Second, polls consistently show that not just a super-majority of the Japanese people, but something like four-fifths of them reject calls for remilitarization (i.e., amendments to Article IX of the Japanese constitution). Rearming Japan would be, in all likelihood, a horribly undemocratic move in addition to being risky.
Third, it’s not just China that we have to consider. South Korea and Russia are also justly suspicious of Tokyo’s aspirations.
Among the greatest accomplishments of U.S. foreign policy has been preserving the relative solidarity of the non-Communist states in Asia despite the fact that postwar Japan was not reconstructed to atone for its prewar sins, as Germany was. (The same emperor, the same flag, the same anthem, and many of the same leaders.) Let’s not throw that away because China arms a few regiments.
Paul,
Of course most Japanese reject calls for remilitarization. It’s nice to be a free rider. It can’t last forever, though, and the sooner we find a way out of this impasse, the sooner we will have a valuable ally in a region where we could really use one.
As to Russia and South Korea, I’m not sure how just their concerns are–I really don’t see Japan invading either one, nor risking so much for a more minor territorial dispute. Besides, aren’t these two afraid of China also? Wouldn’t Japan be a welcome member of the team?
Japan is not the main problem for the region. They are happy not to invest in a military and infrastructure. The majority of it’s citizens would like to remain passive but fear will probably spur them to militarize. Don’t forget that North Korea launched a ballistic missile over their country a few years ago, it caused real alarm. They have no defense for it, no wonder the missile defense plans. Stress defense plans, not offensive.
China is growing and will continue to test other countries for weakness. They have also claimed territory in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. These islands are claimed in their entirety by China, Taiwan, and Vietnam, while portions are claimed by Malaysia and the Philippines. The Japanese know they must respond. Stress defense of their islands, not offense.
If China threatens to seize Japanese controlled territory then the Japanese must respond above all others. If not, the Chinese will see it as weakness. It is inconceivable to me that they would not have contingency plans for defense of any area in their country. I also think they have decided, and rightly so, that the US will not take the lead in defending Japan against China.
Lastly, China can’t invade Taiwan let alone some islands farther from their coast. All they can do now is assert claims for use later or take over some oil rigs or patches of real estate and dare someone to kick them off. The real worry for Japan will be if China builds a true navy that can threaten the main Japanese islands. I apologize for no page breaks, I have put some in but when I preview it they aren’t there. Any suggestions???
Never mind.