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December 26, 2004

A giant wave has killed at least six thousand--and probably many more--in southeast Asia. The wave, triggered by a magnitude 8.9 earthquake that occurred near the Indonesian island of Sumatra, traveled far and fast, devastating coastal areas--including fishing villages and tourist resorts.

Update: A firsthand report from the Washington Post.

Update: An overview from the NYT, which estimates the total dead at more than 8,000; other sources have stated that the total could be more than 10,000.

Let's put this in perspective in two ways. First, unlike weather both in Earth's atmosphere and the Sun's, we know very little about how to predict earthquakes. Thus, although we can track hurricanes and tornadoes and even predict their course with a high degree of accuracy, allowing for the evacuation of affected areas, and although we can even make vague predictions about sunspot activity, it's much, much harder for experts to say when and where an earthquake will occur, and how strong it will be. The complications of geography, both physical and human, make earthquake prediction even more difficult--as we've just seen, a strong earthquake in Indonesia can kill thousands of people in Sri Lanka and India.

Second, the earthquake shows how difficult it is for us to calculate the risks and rewards of any remote event. Posner's latest book--which I haven't yet read--deals with this; but it's clear that if an earthquake like this only happens once in an indeterminate but high number of years, factoring those distant risks into our calculations is going to be all-but-impossible. And yet, failing to take these risks into account causes a misdistribution of resources. Moreover, shocks like this skew--irrationally--how people will behave in the future: Anybody up for a vacation in Sri Lanka?

Finally, I have a question which sounds uncaring at the moment but which is important nonetheless: What about the shipping that has to pass through the Strait of Malacca? Hundreds of millions of dollars worth of shipping goes through the bottleneck every day, including fuel shipments for the industrial centers of Asia--how has this been affected by the great wave and its effects? The earthquake's most visible victims--the residents of the coastal areas--are not the only people who will be directly impacted by the event.

Update: Unsurprisingly, the BBC has a fine package on how the tsunami has affected Asia, including countries like Burma and the Maldives that haven't gotten much attention elsewhere. The BBC also notes that Somalia has been affected by the wave, too.

Posted by Paul Musgrave at December 26, 2004 11:45 AM

Comments

Posted by: Eponymous at December 27, 2004 06:58 PM | permalink

Posted by: Paul at December 28, 2004 12:37 AM | permalink