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November 20, 2004
The Dragon Blows Smoke Rings
China has had an assertive fortnight, what with negotiating oil deals with Iran, "accidentally" trespassing in Japan's territorial waters, and sending its president to network all across Latin America. Supporting this international profile is China's booming economy. But for all its success in delivering wealth and prestige to the government, the regime has been less concerned with promoting the rights of ordinary Chinese.
"Technical errors" led a Chinese nuclear submarine to travel Japan's territorial waters--"accidentally" following a narrow channel between two islands, Japan Times reports. The Washington Post has more details, and notes that the Japanese navy (properly, the Maritime Self-Defense Force) gave chase for two days after the submarine refused to identify itself. The submarine was 400km distant from Okinawa, site of a major U.S. military facility, and near the disputed Diaoyu (Chinese name) / Senkaku (Japanese names) islands. More critically,
[The submarine] was operating in waters near where Chinese vessels earlier this year began exploring for gas deposits along the median line of overlapping exclusive economic zones claimed by both countries. In response to Japanese demands, the Chinese and Japanese governments last month held a round of talks over the Chinese exploration, after which Japanese officials complained they had been stonewalled.
The Japanese trade minister, Shoichi Nakagawa, told reporters in Tokyo last week that the submarine incident could intensify Japan's doubts about the gas exploration and China's intentions in the disputed economic zones.
The
Post notes that China's massive increase in energy needs has led the Beijing government to aggressively pursue deals to import foreign oil and gas.
One of the key players in this strategy is Iran, and the article draws a link between oil and gas talks between Tehran and Beijing and Beijing's public blocking of efforts by the U.S. to refer Iran's nuclear quest to the Security Council. Not only is this a direct challenge to the U.S., but the development of markets in China for Iran has the effect of weakening the effect of the sanctions the U.S. has imposed on Iran since the country's Islamic revolution.
And, as always, there are issues over Taiwan.
A U.S. undersecretary of defense warned Taiwan recently that China was developing technical means with which to shut down Taiwan's utilities and communications. "Taiwan could be electronically blockaded, isolated from the world, creating a kind of perfect storm in which the U.S. could not communicate with Taiwan or Taiwan with the world," Richard Lawless told Taiwanese officials, according to the Associated Press. China has pressed ahead with its military modernization plans, including developing indigenous Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) planes. At the same time, a plurality of Taiwanese think that the government's plans to spend additional hundreds of millions of dollars on defense technology to be bought in the U.S. is too expensive. Indeed, the best news for Taiwan recently was the European Parliament's decision not to lift an EU ban on arms sales to china.
The basis of China's power, though, isn't military but economic. Christian Science Monitor discusses Chinese President Hu Jintao's two-week-long trip through Latin America ahead of a summit this week. Hu comes bearing gifts, including business deals to increase trade between China and resource-rich countries like Chile and investment deals for Argentina, where China will invest billions over the next decade. Particularly important is Brazil, New York Times writes, where the world's best iron reserves are located. Brazil and China have publicly flirted with the idea of a free trade agreement.
William Ratliff, a fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institute, says in the CSM article that China is scoring a PR coup with Hu's journey: "It is telling that Hu is spending more time in South America over this fortnight than Bush has in the past four years...Hu will come over as much more interested in Latin American people," he suggests. "His sweet, soft-power vibes leave Bush sounding like a foghorn."
Back in China, though, it's still hard for Chinese to get accountability from the Party or the government. Washington Post looks at how the bureaucracy blocked one group of Chinese cab drivers from even pursuing redress.
Posted by Paul Musgrave at November 20, 2004 07:18 AM