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November 29, 2004
The Dollar and The Dragon
China may be becoming increasingly assertive in its diplomacy (as Dan Drezner and I write), but it stands to lose a lot of money--perhaps a tenth of GDP--because of its substantial reserve holdings in dollars, Brad Setser says.
In the Financial Times this weekend, one writer suggested that if the dollar falls too fast too far, we could be looking at a global deflationary depression--in which both prices and aggregate demand fall. What does that mean for the average Joe on the street? Let me put it this way: The last time we had a deflationary depression (Japan not included), bands were playing "Happy Days Are Here Again."
By the way, let me mention an article in the New York Times from this weekend about one country where the dollar is--or was--hard currency: Cuba, where Castro has just reversed a decade-old policy of allowing American money to serve as legal Cuban tender.
Posted by Paul Musgrave at November 29, 2004 04:48 PM