« Burning Bridges | Main | St. Louis to Casey, Illinois »

November 29, 2004

Realpolitik Still Matters!

At Hoosier Review, Zach Wendling comments on the unfolding crisis in Ukraine by noting the research speciality of Dr. Condoleeza Rice, U.S. Secretary of State-designate. Given the involvement of Russia in the presidential election between Yanukovich and Yushchenko, and Moscow's clear desire to bring back a measure of control within the sphere of former Soviet states, maybe it's a very good thing that Condi spent her career studying the Soviet Union. Everything old is new again.

I never quite accepted that after September 11, everything in foreign policy was different. Many of the people who say that, and believe that, say and believe that because they weren't paying attention beforehand, and because they are only watching the news that they think is important now. That sounds harsh, but it isn't: If your introduction to foreign affairs is a major crisis, then your desire to learn about that crisis is wholly rational. I know, for instance, that my understanding of Ukraine's politics is dreadfully warped by the fact that the only time I hear about Kiev's politics it's because some journalist or politician has been murdered.

The distinctiveness of 9/11, then, has shaped the discourse of American foreign policy to a much greater degree than the event has reshaped the world's power structures.

Let's face it: States may not be the only actors on the world stage, and some states may be less important than some non-governmental actors (e.g., Tuvalu vs. the Red Cross), but the structure of the world's politics and, to a lesser extent, economics is still dictated by state actors. The United States is not an NGO, and the EU is a supra-state or a coalition of states, not an independent actor like Amnesty International. And China, India, Brazil and Iran are very happy with their statehood, and are resentful and suspicious of efforts to pare away their sovereignty.

The nuclear revolution has worked its way through the world, and now we are faced with something that is new for the modern age: The ability of a non-state actor to deploy an astonishing amount of force against states. But the threat of nuclear terrorism is not something new, and neither are the best methods for dealing with it. Since uranium and plutonium require large-scale facilities to create, and because the world's stocks of uranium and plutonium are in the possession of governments, efforts to block nuclear terrorism are going to require the U.S. and the West to work with state actors.

This should be an easy sell: Only a suicidal or a deranged regime--or one totally disconnected from the global political and economic system--will be willing to use nuclear weapons aggressively, or provide them to groups that will do so. And no regime could ever want its weapons to fall into the hands of terrorists through theft or carelessness. There are many measures that even countries outside the framework of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty could be persuaded to take (ending the hair-trigger on Indo-Pakistani nuclear weapons, for instance, and giving better command and control systems to both New Delhi and Islamabad).

I've written here about weapons of mass destruction because that is really the most obvious threat from terrorists, who--thus far--do not seem to have the resources, talents or understanding to go after critical infrastructure or revert to a policy of terror bombing (imagine, for instance, a suicide bomber on the Manhattan subway system). My intention is to remind you that states form a critical part of the problem, and ignoring our policy toward governments (and even factions within governments) in favor of a paradigm in which only non-state actors matter is foolish, short-sighted and probably actively harmful. A quick glance at the current security headlines reveals that states are still the major movers in global affairs: Iran's uranium enrichment program, China's territorial disputes with Japan, Sino-Taiwanese relations, the Ukrainian election, and, of course, North Korea. Non-state actors are important. But they are not the most important threats the U.S. faces, and we should not focus our attention on them to the exclusion of our enduring national interests, which are affected most by the actions of other states.

Posted by Paul Musgrave at November 29, 2004 02:53 PM

Comments

You seem to be arguing against a bit of a straw man: who is proposing "a paradigm in which only non-state actors matter"? Granted, there are plenty of people arguing that non-state actors now matter more and more, but this is not exactly the same as saying states don't matter at all.

I agree with you that the rise of transnational NGOs do not by themselves erode national sovereignty: indeed, many NGOs have organized precisely to lobby for greater national control over national economies, and greater regulation of trade at the state level.

So states clearly do still matter. But how much they matter has to be decided on a case by case basis. You clearly point this out, but on the other hand, I'm not sure I agree with the thrust of your last few lines. You say that because states are "major movers" in the current headlines, our foreign policy ought to be primarily organized around them. Wouldn't that be just as short-sighted as it was to say that because NGOs were in the headlines in November 1999, at the "Battle of Seattle," states have gone the way of the buffalo?

Posted by: Caleb at November 29, 2004 06:58 PM | permalink

It is a bit of a straw man, I'll admit, and clearly both NGOs in the normal sense and non-state actors in the broader (but more accurate) sense of including transnational corporations, wealthy and influential individuals, and religious organizations should be included; in addition, international and transnational phenomena like ideologies and information flows, population movements and familial connections, and -- most critically from a security perspective -- environmental and public health considerations should receive due attention. In many ways, frankly, these multinational phenomena (as distinct from the actors who affect and are affected by them) are more important than states--Carville's remark about wanting to be reincarnated as the bond market "because then I could intimidate everybody!" springs to mind, as does the obvious importance of the Internet for creating intense, transient and influential modes for shaping opinion.

Yet at the same time the structure of global politics created, maintained, and largely administered by states and state-supported entities (the UN, NATO, ASEAN, APEC and OPEC, etc) is the most visible way in which these phenomena are reified; they also form the spaces in which NGOs and other non-state actors make their cases. (We in the liberal democracies don't notice how accomodating our polities are to NGOs, but I suspect it's rather easier to gather information about hate crimes in Manhattan than Myanmar.)

The scope for state action has narrowed dramatically in the past fifty or so years, and the "regular" state--the Denmarks and Australias of the world--almost certainly have less freedom of movement than the class of state actors, because it is largely the most influential states that have the greatest freedom. Foreign policy must deal with this reality. Simultaneously, though, we also have to recognize that the very limiting of the scope of state freedom of action takes place within a political framework that makes political tools themselves less capable of exerting influence--that is to say, it's very hard to send an ambassador to a transnational phenomenon. So the elements of our foreign policy conduct have to be based on states, because they are the primary levers through which we can exert our own influence.

Really, though, I'm addressing my remarks in the post to people who conceive of the world as having three actors: The United States, terrorists, and Governments That Don't Matter. This is not a widely-shared view in the academy, but it is rather more widely held in the parts of the news-consuming public that see international affairs as a battle between good and evil. So it is not entirely a straw man after all, unless I am badly misreading the normal WND columnist.

Posted by: Paul at November 29, 2004 08:56 PM | permalink

The scope for state action has narrowed dramatically in the past fifty or so years, and the "regular" state--the Denmarks and Australias of the world--almost certainly have less freedom of movement than the class of state actors, because it is largely the most influential states that have the greatest freedom.

This is true. It is so true that one might even imagine that most states don't really matter, fundamentally. Only a few do. When it comes to solving the big problems facing the world, only a few entities are up to the challenge. Fifty years ago, it became apparent that the traditional-sized states of Europe--including Britain--could not solve those problems. Larger units that controlled continents began to really matter. For a long time, only two such units existed: the United States and the Soviet Union. The latter has ceased to exist, so the US happens to be a state and happens to be the most powerful actor. However, when other continent-sized entities come of age, we may indeed face the risk of a multipolar world (I am among those who believe that a concert-of-superstates scenario is ultimately bad for the world when compared to the hegemony of a liberal empire). So what is our task? Install controls on the political economy of the world while we have the ability to do so. Thus, when the world consists of superstates only, they won't matter as much as the liberal controls put in place by the original superstate--the United States.

Posted by: Chuck at November 30, 2004 03:14 AM | permalink

Of course U.S. vital interests still matter. But U.S. ideals are still playing a much larger role in U.S. foreign policy, especially with respect to the Middle East, than they did previously.

In any case, with the Bush foreign policy, you're beginning to see a fusion of the two, making the old TR vs. Wilson or realpolitik vs. idealism dichotomies outdated.

Posted by: Kreliav at November 30, 2004 06:48 AM | permalink

Most people I've talked to from the Middle East can't understand why we have abandoned our ideals. If what you say is true, Kreliav, the administration has a long way to go before everyone else catches on.

Posted by: Jason Kuznicki at November 30, 2004 08:44 AM | permalink

Yes, Jason. However, I was referring to policy at it is made by actual policymakers in the United States. Perhaps there are many different perceptions on how well U.S. ideals are reflected in our foreign policies, but I would suggest that the perception of the people who know U.S. history, make U.S. policy, and aren't informed exclusively by monopolistic state-sponsored media are the most relevant.

Posted by: Kreliav at November 30, 2004 10:51 AM | permalink

These people are indeed most relevant--if what you want is to get the most accurate historical assessment of the events. But if you want to win a propaganda war (which is an essential part of what we're doing), then you have got to beat the state-run media at their own game. So far we hardly seem to be trying.

Posted by: Jason Kuznicki at December 2, 2004 11:16 AM | permalink

 
---- ADVERTISEMENTS ----



Rankings and Aggregators
Technocrati
Blogdom of God
Who Links Here

Site Meter